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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

26th September 2021

DAILY CASES RISING SLIGHTLY

Take care as virus still widespread

Chad Skip preamble and go to summary

Skip to advice

Skip to links at end

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Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district.

This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

How to get vaccinated

The most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs.

The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get your booster shot when the time comes.

First vaccinations can still be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment.

Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm

Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm

(AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available)

Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW

How to request a COVID test

In order to protect others it is important to book a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms.

There are now two types of test you can get. The accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.

Click for government guidance on types of tests

Getting a PCR test

Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:

https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test

In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore.

If you cannot get to these you can order a home test kit.

If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days.

Getting a Lateral Flow Device test

Lateral Flow tests can now be taken at Great Malvern Library, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, and Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green. This test is intended to screen those who show no symptoms and can either be pre-booked on-line or you may be able to walk-in at the library.

COVID Lateral Flow Device You can also collect home test kits, packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from the library and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park. (Lateral Flow Device shown on the right).

Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern

Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.

Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests

In our opinion, many Seniors will find the home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.

If you test COVID positive you should take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result, as false positives can occur.

In any event you should report the result at:

www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result

COVID LFD box

Home test kit obtained from Prospect View

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.

If you have had a jab there are questions allowing you to enter the vaccine type and any side effects.

NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you will be advised to self-isolate

From 16th August fully vaccinated individuals don't need to self-isolate. However if you are feeling poorly and get pinged it is recommended you take a COVID test, and self-isolate if the result is positive.

Bear in mind fully vaccinated individuals can still catch COVID and pass it on to others.

NHS app and Covid Pass

You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status, for example when travelling abroad.

Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app

If you don't have a smartphone you may be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.

You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home.

26th September 2021

Summary

COVID-19 remains widespread so Seniors are advised to continue taking precautions to reduce the risk of catching the virus; such as regular hand-washing, wearing a face covering where recommended, and continuing with sensible distancing. Be wary of unvaccinated children who may bring COVID home from school.

Click to view our advice

The Effective Reproduction Rate of the virus is hovering close to one so that, were everybody to reduce contacts a little, daily cases should fall. Alternatively hospital admissions and the COVID daily death rate could climb a little, later in October, after adults return to workplaces, students mingle, and more time is spent indoors as the weather deteriorates. Daily cases have been drifting up and down for some weeks and it may be another month or two before we see a significant drop in the numbers.

Meanwhile, people are getting out more and life is very much back to normal in the rural Malvern Hills. Like us you may feel 'fireproof' after being fully vaccinated; but the vaccine is not a magic bullet so don't be too surprised if you or some of your friends become poorly. Fully vaccinated individuals can catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others. Thankfully most should not need treatment in hospital though sadly a minority particularly the elderly and frail with underlying conditions could die of COVID despite being fully vaccinated.

Booster jabs have started being rolled out for the most elderly who received their second jab more than 6 months ago and we expect most of those aged 70+ years will have received their booster by Christmas, by which time everyone will be hoping the 'emergency' is over.

England has now moved to the COVID-19 Response Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 which sets out how the government will respond to COVID-19 during autumn and winter 2021 to 2022.

Click to view COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Click to go to our annex/commentary

Vaccinations

You can see the percentage of people vaccinated by age group on the Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

Two jabs are essential to protect adults from the Delta variant of COVID-19.

Adults aged 18+ can book a jab on-line without having to wait for a call from their GP surgery.

Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

There is a mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground where first vaccinations can be obtained without having to make an appointment.

Those aged 16 and 17 years are eligible to get a first jab without the need for parental consent; they should wait to be contacted by the NHS.

All children aged 12 - 15 are now eligible for a first dose of the Pfizer vaccine which may be given in schools subject to parental consent.

The bar chart below shows the population of the UK by age band (1), extended to include 12 year olds, and the number of first (2) and second jabs (3) given, so that you can see overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK.

COVID vaccination bar chart

Vaccinometer as of 26th September 2021

The vaccination rate has almost ground to a halt and you will see little change to last week's chart. Total first jabs are reported 48,722,414 to the 26th September. Second jabs are reported 44,739,770.

Probably the stage has been reached where as many are now achieving future 'immunity' through infection as vaccination.

The population of the UK aged 12+ is about 58,000,000 and if younger children are included the total is 66,000,000 so there is still some way to go for the whole country to be fully vaccinated.

Achieving herd immunity now seems doubtful as the fully vaccinated can catch the Delta variant of COVID-19 but it's still important to protect as many people as possible from serious illness and death.

By now most of those aged 18+ years should have been 'offered' a second jab, but it may be a while till they receive it.

Target dates have not been announced for providing a first dose to those aged 12 to 17 years.

Click for NHS video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated.

Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

There are many charts which some may find confusing, but look for the chart showing share of people who have received at least one dose of COVID-vaccine.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Hint: click TABLE tab to see more countries.

Vaccination numbers in the EU are now similar to or better than those in the UK because HMG has dithered over vaccinating those aged 12+. For example 71% of the UK population has received a first dose compared to 80% in Spain and 87% in Portugal.

Number of cases

During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose from 29,604 to 34,032.

The ZOE COVID Study estimates 50,000 cases per day compared to 44,000 last week; much higher than the PHE figure.

The chart below shows broadly how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September.

COVID daily new cases

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 26th September 2021

Zooming in, the next chart shows in more detail how daily UK cases have tipped up in the last week.

Daily COVID cases to 2nd May 2021

UK daily new confirmed COVID cases 1st August to 26th September 2021

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 234,484 to 7,664,230.

In Worcestershire there have now been 57,485 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 2,083 on last week.

The next chart shows how daily cases have begun to rise in Worcestershire.

COVID cases in Worcestershire

Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st August to 26th September 2021

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.

Districts of Worcs	Cases	Weekly increase	Population
Bromsgrove	11,371	+444	98,529
Malvern Hills	5,167	+158	77,545
Redditch	10,044	+457	85,317
Worcester	10,510	+211	103,542
Wychavon	10,770	+446	126,240
Wyre Forest	9,623	+367	100,957
TOTAL	57,485	+2,083	592,130
COMPARE WITH
County of Hereford	14,040	+1,076	195,000
Leicester (city of)	55,770	+1,243	400,000

Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 26th September 2021

Cases rose significantly this week, possibly driven by schoolchildren, except for the cities of Worcester and Leicester which flat-lined.

Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.

Interactive maps

At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country. This week the map shows much of the UK has remained dark blue indicating high infection rates, with patches of purple indicating higher rates reducing in Scotland and growing in England.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.

Recent weekly cases to 20th September are up: North Malvern 13; Malvern Link 13; Pickersleigh 9; Barnards Green 8; Malvern Wells and Priory 9; Callow End and Hanley 14; Upton and Welland 5.

Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.

Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)

The Zoe map shows pockets of infection are scattered across England with no clear pattern.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.

PHE figures

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 965 in the last week to 136,168 while the daily average flat-lined at about 140 deaths per day roughly tracking daily cases reported 20 days earlier.

UK COVID death rate

COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 26th September 2021

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths contribute 8%.

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 10th September 2021 (week 36 of 2021) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table

Districts of Worcs	Deaths 2020	Deaths 2021	Week 36	Population
Bromsgrove	164	111	1	98,529
Malvern Hills	61	85	0	77,545
Redditch	108	91	1	85,317
Worcester	87	124	0	103,542
Wychavon	157	129	1	126,240
Wyre Forest	171	118	2	100,957
TOTAL	748	658	5	592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 10th September 2021

In week 36 there was 1 COVID death in hospital in Bromsgrove; 1 death in hospital in Redditch; 1 death in hospital in Wychavon; and 2 deaths in hospital in Wyre Forest.

In England and Wales 851 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 10th September, 194 more than the week before. Of these 86 were in a care home, 54 at home, 697 in hospital and 4 elsewhere. We suspect these figures may have been inflated by delayed reporting of deaths over the Autumn bank holiday.

Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.

The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

NHS England figures

The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 24th September 2021.

Worcestershire	Cumulative deaths	Past week
Acute hospitals	847	7
Care hospitals	64	0
TOTAL	911	7

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

The Coronavirus Dashboard reports 1 death in the Malvern Hills in the last week.

Note: Statistics can also be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (unchanged)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 15th September 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, particularly the elderly, the death rate rose to 143 deaths per day.

Age band	Number of deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	9	0.3
20 - 39	79	2.3
40 - 59	443	13
60 - 79	1408	42
80+	1422	42

Current risk of COVID-19 death by age band

Those aged 60+ years now account for about 84% of deaths, not far from the figure of 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

The majority of these deaths could be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. The overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.

Risk of death (unchanged)

The infection rate in England is currently about 265 in 100,000 per week so even if this continued all year the chance of catching COVID would be no more than 1 in 7.

Some weeks ago the probability of dying of COVID was about 1 in 500 of those that tested COVID positive (see below) and as most deaths are amongst the elderly the chance of fully vaccinated Seniors dying of COVID could be about 1 in 1,000 of those infected, and the probability of dying of COVID in any one year no more than say 1 in 10,000. Despite the vaccines waning in effectiveness as months go by the odds are unlikely to dip below 1 in 1,000.

These odds are unlikely to worry fully vaccinated healthy and optimistic Seniors wanting to make the most of their remaining years.

On the other hand the risk-averse might be cautious bearing in mind that the vaccines do not work well for about one person in twenty, for example the immuno-suppressed.

Third vaccinations and booster jabs should offer greater protection this winter.

Risk of COVID-19 death by vaccination status (unchanged)

On 13th September 2021 the ONS released a report on deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England, occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021. The report concludes, in this period, just 1% of deaths were of fully vaccinated individuals.

This 'headline' is somewhat misleading because the majority of deaths occurred in January and February when few people were vaccinated. We imagine the factor of protection offered by double vaccination is more likely between 5 and 10 but this will not be known for sure until the ONS provides an analysis for more recent months.

Click for ONS report on deaths by vaccination status

Click for ONS spreadsheet of mortality rates

Perhaps more than 50% of COVID deaths are now of the fully vaccinated?

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.

Hospital COVID cases (UK)	Number	Change since last week
Patients currently in hospital	7,124	- 944
Patients on ventilation	916	- 104
Patients admitted daily	777	- 155

Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 26th September 2021

NOTES

As a result of the recent dip in daily cases UK hospital admissions have begun to fall, but expect a small uptick next week tracking the rise in daily cases.

As a guide from observing the charts it looked as though currently about:-

1 in 35 of new of cases are hospitalised 8 days after testing positive.
1 in 350 of new cases die on average 20 days after being tested positive.

These ratios depend on the percentage of infected individuals coming forward to be tested, the proportion of young people in the mix, and the effectiveness of the vaccines all of which will vary over time. More favourable figures may emerge following booster jabs and if infections are mostly amongst the young.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity

An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

There are now 38 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 2 are ventilated beds; roughly 14% of the peak experienced last January.

Bed occupancy has remained fairly flat in recent weeks.

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 3rd October) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 244,000 towards 7,908,000 while the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases could flat-line at about 34,000.

In Worcestershire about 2,000 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 160 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 980 towards 137,200 during the 7 days ending 3rd October 2021, with the average daily death rate flat-lining at about 140 deaths per day and then falling slightly the week after.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 2,083 new cases this week may translate to 6 COVID deaths per week in the middle of October.

Hospital admissions in England will probably rise a little next week, tracking daily cases.

Longer term outlook

Daily cases amongst adults in England have either been flat-lining or falling a tad, whilst cases in unvaccinated schoolchildren have been rising steeply following return to school. As children develop resistance to infection from vaccination and adults receive booster jabs there should be a downturn in cases by Christmas.

Modelling figures from University College London suggest the 7-day average of daily deaths and the prevalence of infection will decline slowly reaching a minimum in December.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

SPI-M modelling, for the government, suggests during the next two months, daily cases could either remain fairly flat (R close to 1) or rise putting hospitals in danger of being overwhelmed (were R to increase towards 1.5) which could trigger the government to implement PLAN B of their Winter Plan.

For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases are a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths can currently be expected to follow daily cases roughly in the ratio:

Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.
Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE.
Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.
UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.

Advice for Seniors (unchanged)

COVID risk medium Recently there have been no more than 12 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE; see our annex and riskometer opposite.

Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.

Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)

Like Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.

Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:

wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you can, keep doors and windows open if you are indoors;
avoid crowds and minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated in order of prevalence are said to be runny nose (75%), headache (73%), sneezing (67%), sore throat (53%), and loss of smell (51%);
respect others and give them space.

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

Annex to 26th September update

Commentary

Little to report this week as daily hospital admissions fell slightly and the death rate flat-lined. Daily cases, after dipping, have begun rising again particularly in unvaccinated schoolchildren who may infect parents and grandparents so hospitalisations could go up a tad next week.

A media frenzy has developed with scaremongering stories about sharply rising wholesale gas prices, a shortage of carbon dioxide for food packaging, and a shortage of HGV drivers. A BBC report of delayed delivery of fuel to some BP garages has led to panic-buying at the pumps leading to short term shortages, while opposition MPs have been speculating there will be no turkeys or toys at Christmas. For the time being COVID is no longer making the headlines!

Our son reports that in Singapore daily cases have spiked following relaxation of restrictions so, unlike the UK, some restrictions have been re-imposed.

Weekly updates

Here are links to the weekly Zoe COVID Study, and Independent SAGE updates:-

Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 22nd September update

The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 24th September discusses at length how the numbers have been changing and the Independent SAGE Winter Plan.

Click to watch Independent SAGE 24th September briefing

Click to read Independent SAGE nine point Winter Plan

Independent SAGE are recommending light restrictions similar to those in Europe now, whilst the government will only implement their PLAN B if things 'go wrong'.

U3A (unchanged)

Malvern U3A groups have resumed. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.

Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are unlikely to be provided at present.

Overseas travel (unchanged)

The international travel traffic light system is being replaced in England with a single red list with effect from 4 October 2021.

Then, fully vaccinated individuals returning to the UK from other countries won't have to take a PCR test before departure and soon after will just have to take a Lateral Flow Test on arrival.

Click for BBC report: Amber list scrapped in overhaul of travel rules in England

List of vaccines

Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK. Plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in 2021 for booster jabs and vaccinating those aged 12 - 18 years.

COVID-19 vaccine	Doses ordered (million)	Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C	40+60+35	Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge	100	Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C	7+10	Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose	60+40 order cancelled	A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021.
Janssen, single dose	20	Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Novavax	60	A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials.
GSK Sanofi	60	Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expect approval end 2021.
Curevac	50	Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Present rate of new cases and risk

The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen slightly to 302 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is now 306 and the Malvern Hills 172.

As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.

The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors without underlying conditions catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.

The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.

About the UK COVID-19 final death toll

The UK is probably going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which may increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this could result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.

The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 136,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.

Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.

At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.

Click for YouTube video of Coronavirus: Health Committee questions Government Chief Scientific Adviser and NHS England 17 March 2020

On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.

So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.

Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether their border controls will stop the spread of the Delta variant.

With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.

A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.