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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

31st October 2021

GET VACCINATED AND TAKE CARE AS VIRUS STILL WIDESPREAD

Skip preamble and go to summary

Skip to advice

Skip to links at end

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Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. We also provide links to where further information can be found.

This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

How to get vaccinated

The most important thing everyone can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed months ago, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs.

The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so remember to get your booster shot six months after your second jab.

The booster will probably be Pfizer or Moderna.

First vaccinations can still be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment; else go on-line to book a booster shot if you do not hear from your GP.

Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm

Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm

Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW

How to request a COVID test

In order to protect others it is important to book a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms.

There are now two types of test you can get. The accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.

Click for government guidance on types of tests

Getting a PCR test

Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:

https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test

In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore.

If you cannot get to these you can order a home test kit.

If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days.

Getting a Lateral Flow Device test

Lateral Flow tests can now be taken at Great Malvern Library, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, and Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green. This test is intended to screen those who show no symptoms and can either be pre-booked on-line or you may be able to walk-in at the library.

COVID Lateral Flow Device You can also collect home test kits, packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from the library and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park. (Lateral Flow Device shown on the right).

Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern

Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.

Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests

In our opinion, many Seniors will find the home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.

If you test COVID positive you should take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result, as false positives can occur.

In any event you should report the result at:

www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result

COVID LFD box

Home test kit obtained from Prospect View

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart-phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.

There are questions allowing you to enter your vaccine type and whether any side effects.

NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you will be advised to self-isolate

From 16th August fully vaccinated individuals don't need to self-isolate. However if you are feeling poorly and get pinged it is recommended you take a COVID test, and self-isolate if the result is positive.

Bear in mind fully vaccinated individuals can still catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others.

NHS app and Covid Pass

You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status, for example when travelling abroad.

Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app

If you don't have a smartphone you may be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.

You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home.

31st October 2021

Summary

The prevalence of COVID-19 is now said to be as high as it was during the peak of the second wave of the epidemic last January, but at least we have a useful measure of protection from the vaccines.

In the last few days cases have begun to dip a little but there could be a further upturn triggered by unvaccinated children returning to school after half term.

Sadly 'baked in' daily deaths are likely to continue rising, peaking at 190 deaths per day about 12th November and then beginning to fall.

Provided hospital bed occupancy remains below 10,000 it is doubtful the government will have to implement their Plan B. We think it likely this threshold will not be exceeded and in any event a public health campaign to jab the vaccine hesitant would be a better approach.

Idle speculation in the media suggests cases could decline significantly during November, but nobody really knows. In the meantime, Seniors are advised to continue taking precautions to reduce the risk of catching the virus; such as regular hand-washing, wearing a face covering where recommended, continuing with sensible distancing, and avoiding crowded indoor settings.

Click to view our advice

We are getting out more and life seems very much back to normal in the rural Malvern Hills. People seem to be increasingly complacent and not sanitising and wearing masks as much as they did, and friends are much closer when they chat.

Like us you may feel 'fireproof' after being fully vaccinated; but the present vaccines are not a magic bullet so don't be too surprised if you or some of your friends become poorly. Fully vaccinated individuals can catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others - thankfully most should not need treatment in hospital though sadly a minority particularly the elderly and frail with underlying conditions may die of COVID despite being fully vaccinated.

In Malvern, booster jabs have started being rolled out for the most elderly and others such as NHS staff who received their second jab more than 6 months ago and we expect most of those aged 70+ years will have received their booster by Christmas, by which time everyone will be hoping the 'emergency' is all but over.

Don't forget to get your flu jab as it is expected there could be a greater chance of dying if you are unfortunate and catch flu and COVID at the same time.

A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Click to go to our annex/commentary

Vaccinations

You can see the percentage of local people vaccinated by age group on the Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

Two jabs are essential to protect adults from the Delta variant of COVID-19.

Those aged 12+ can book a first or second jab on-line without having to wait for a call from their GP surgery; those aged 50+ can also book a booster shot - see the NHS website for eligibility criteria.

Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

There is a mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground; first vaccinations can be obtained without having to make an appointment.

The bar chart below shows the population of the UK by age band (1), extended to include 12 year olds, and the number of first (2) and second jabs (3) given, so that you can see overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK.

COVID vaccination bar chart

Vaccinometer as of 31st October 2021

Apart from boosters, the vaccination rate has slowed since the summer and again you will see little change to last week's chart so, without a public health campaign, the situation is about as good as it's going to get. Total first jabs are reported 49,955,853 to the 31st October while second jabs are reported 45,697,856.

Probably the stage has been reached where as many are now achieving future 'immunity' through infection as vaccination - particularly schoolchildren.

The population of the UK aged 12+ is about 58M, so were everyone to be vaccinated the lower blue line would reach 58M; currently it is 8M short.

Most of those aged 12 to 17 years are currently only eligible for a single dose so the upper blue line would reach 52M at best; currently it is 7M short.

For comparison, if younger children are included, the total population of the UK is about 66M.

England is well behind Wales and Scotland in the vaccination of children, particularly those aged 12 - 15 years.

Country	12-15 years	16-17 years
England	21%	61%
Wales	53%	75%
Scotland	46%	78%

Percentage of children vaccinated

source: Independent SAGE

Target dates have not been announced for completion of the vaccination of those aged 12 to 15 years and little has been heard from the new Vaccines Minister, Margaret Throup. One English headmaster said on the TV about 50% of his parents had not given approval - so high take up is doubtful without a further advertising campaign.

We can but hope the situation will improve now parents are allowed to take their children to vaccination centres.

The ONS says about 90% of adults have antibodies either through infection or vaccination but achieving herd immunity is somewhat doubtful as perhaps 30% of the fully vaccinated can catch the Delta variant of COVID-19; nevertheless vaccination is most important to protect as many people as possible from debilitating long term loss of smell and taste, Long COVID, serious illness, and death.

Click for NHS video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated.

Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

Booster jabs

The number of booster jabs given can be found in a spreadsheet on the NHS England website. Look in the data section for the COVID-19 daily announced vaccinations Excel file which gives a breakdown of jabs by region and age.

Click for NHS COVID-19 vaccinations

As of 30th October 6,364,453 booster jabs were said to have been given. In comparison about 10M are currently eligible for a booster, and there are about 25M aged 50+ years who will be due for a booster by the New Year.

Professor Tim Spector says booster jabs are being given at the rate of about 1M per week, whereas in comparison 2M per week are becoming eligible.

At this rate we expect all those aged 70+ years should have had their booster shot by Christmas; but the youngest of those aged 50+ might have to wait until the middle of March.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A chart of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

Note: click the country list on the left hand side of the screen to add or removed countries from the chart.

The UK did well to start with but has fallen behind many other countries. For example Portugal has fully vaccinated 87% of its population compared to 67% in the UK.

Australia and New Zealand are rapidly catching up with about 64% of their population fully vaccinated.

Number of cases

During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' fell from 46,898 to 40,580.

The ZOE COVID Study estimates there are more likely 91,000 cases per day compared to 88,000 last week, as testing does not pick up everyone.

The chart below shows broadly how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September.

COVID daily new cases

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 31st October 2021

Zooming in, the next chart shows in more detail how daily UK cases have varied since the 1st August.

Daily COVID cases to 2nd May 2021

UK daily new confirmed COVID cases 1st August to 31st October 2021

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 283,955 to 9,057,629.

In Worcestershire there have now been 71,574 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 2,746 on last week.

The next chart shows how daily cases in Worcestershire have fallen in the last few days.

COVID cases in Worcestershire

Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st August to 31st October 2021

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.

Districts of Worcs	Cases	Weekly increase	Population
Bromsgrove	14,131	+455	98,529
Malvern Hills	6,494	+344	77,545
Redditch	12,468	+391	85,317
Worcester	12,272	+481	103,542
Wychavon	13,798	+567	126,240
Wyre Forest	12,411	+508	100,957
TOTAL	71,574	+2,746	592,130
COMPARE WITH
County of Hereford	18,722	+913	195,000
Leicester (city of)	61,563	+1,429	400,000

Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 31st October 2021

Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.

Cases in the Malvern Hills and the city of Worcester have remained fairly flat, while cases declined in other districts of the county. Cases in the city of Leicester have risen slightly after declining very slowly for several weeks.

It appears cases are bubbling up and down across the UK with no apparent pattern - apart from a surge in the Bristol, Bath, Gloucester region which Independent SAGE attributes to failures at the Immensa test centre in Wolverhampton which reported a huge number of false negative results earlier in the month.

Interactive maps

At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country.

High infection rates can still be found across much of England and Wales.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.

Recent weekly cases to 25th October are: North Malvern 42; Malvern Link 30; Pickersleigh 23; Barnards Green 15; Malvern Wells and Priory 23; Callow End and Hanley 20; Upton and Welland 33.

Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.

Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)

The Zoe map shows pockets of high infection scattered across England and Wales. Rates in Scotland are lower.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.

PHE figures

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 1,099 in the last week to 140,632 while sadly the daily average rose slightly from 136 to 157 deaths per day.

UK COVID death rate

COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 31st October 2021

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Since England emerged from lockdown on 19th July about 12,000 people have died of COVID-19; mostly the elderly.

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths now make up about 9%.

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 15th October 2021 (week 41 of 2021) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table

Districts of Worcs	Deaths 2020	Deaths 2021	Week 41	Population
Bromsgrove	164	117	2	98,529
Malvern Hills	61	89	1	77,545
Redditch	108	96	1	85,317
Worcester	87	126	0	103,542
Wychavon	157	136	2	126,240
Wyre Forest	171	122	1	100,957
TOTAL	748	686	7	592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 15th October 2021

In week 41 there were 2 deaths in hospital in Bromsgrove; 1 death in hospital in Malvern; 1 death in a care home in Redditch; 2 deaths in hospital in Wychavon; and 1 death in hospital in Wyre Forest

In England and Wales 711 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 15th October, 48 more than the week before. Of these 89 were in a care home, 47 at home, 3 in a hospice, 570 in hospital and 2 elsewhere.

Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.

The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 29th October 2021.

Worcestershire	Cumulative deaths	Past week
Acute hospitals	870	7
Care hospitals	64	0
TOTAL	934	7

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

No COVID deaths were reported in the Malvern Hills this week.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (unchanged)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 20th October 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, particularly the elderly, the death rate rose to about 130 deaths per day.

Age band	Number of deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	17	0.3
20 - 39	116	2
40 - 59	708	12
60 - 79	2,470	42
80+	2,565	43

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band

Those aged 60+ years continue to account for about 85% of deaths, not far from the figure of 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

The majority of these deaths could be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. Pregnant mothers, the overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.

Many COVID deaths are now rumoured to be of the fully vaccinated elderly.

Since the 1st August up until last week there have been 51 COVID deaths in Worcestershire which extrapolates to 229 deaths per year. If 85% were attributable to those aged 60+ that would be 195.

The population of Worcestershire is about 592,000 and if the age profile is the same as that of the UK then 147,000 could be aged 60+ years.

Hence the risk of death from COVID-19 per year might be estimated 147,000 divided by 195, or roughly 1 in 750 for Seniors aged 60+.

If you are worried by this risk, bear in mind the elderly are more likely to die of other causes, for example heart disease, cancer or a stroke. A funeral director told us in his experience most COVID deaths were of the elderly taken a 'little' before their time.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.

Hospital COVID cases (UK)	Number	Change since last week
Patients currently in hospital	8,983	+745
Patients on ventilation	946	+54
Patients admitted daily	1,038	-142

Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 31st October 2021

The number of hospital beds occupied by COVID patients is about 20% of the peak last January.

We expect hospital admissions to fall slightly next week following the dip in daily cases.

It is unfortunate many NHS COVID beds are being occupied by people who have either refused vaccination or been lazy and not bothered to get jabbed, extending waiting lists for others.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity

A summary can be found on the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard which reports on 26th October there were 50 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 2 were ventilated beds; roughly 18% of the peak experienced last January.

Between 18th and 24th October 55 patients went into hospital with coronavirus 22 more than the week before; possibly some of these patients were transferred from outside Worcestershire.

Note: Healthcare statistics can be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.

Click to view Worcester healthcare figures

Alternatively,

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 7th November) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 280,000 towards 9,337,000 with the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases hovering around 40,000.

In Worcestershire about 2,750 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 350 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 1,135 towards 141,770 during the 7 days ending 7th November 2021, with the average daily death rate rising towards 175 deaths per day, peaking at 190 deaths per day the following week. These are 'baked in' deaths of those already infected which cannot be avoided.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 2,746 new cases this week may translate to 5 or 6 COVID deaths per week towards the end of November.

Hospital admissions in England should fall towards 890 per day by the end of next week following the dip in daily cases, with beds occupied by COVID patients possibly falling towards 7,700 the week after.

Longer term outlook

A fortnight ago, daily cases amongst adults in England rose, led by a steep increase in cases in unvaccinated schoolchildren. During half term cases fell, but an upturn can be expected next week as only 21% of children in England have been vaccinated.

Hopefully there should be a downturn in cases by Christmas as the resistance to infection of the school population rises either due to vaccination or infection, and the elderly and vulnerable receive their booster jabs.

The new Delta Plus variant of the COVID-19 virus is said to be between 10 and 15% more transmissible than Delta and were this to become dominant it's just possible the government might be forced to implement PLAN B, but in our opinion it would be better to put more effort into getting the vaccine hesitant jabbed, for example through a targeted public health campaign.

Modelling figures from University College London suggest the 7-day average of daily deaths and the prevalence of infection should decline slowly reaching a minimum in December.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

Other models do not rule out a significant further wave of the epidemic next March as the effectiveness of the vaccines wanes and the behaviour of the public returns to 'normal'.

For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases are a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths were expected to follow daily cases roughly in the ratio:

Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.
Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE.
Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.
UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.

While a significant proportion of cases involve schoolchildren, most of whom should not fall seriously ill, these ratios were expected to over-estimate admissions and deaths.

However contrary to expectations daily deaths seem to have worsened to 1:250 of daily cases notified by PHE.

Three factors could be contributing to this:

the virus is weeding out the unvaccinated who are becoming increasingly complacent and no longer wearing masks and distancing;
an increasing proportion of people are not bothering to record their Lateral Flow Test and get a PCR test.
the protection offered by the vaccines is waning;

which is a good reason to get your booster jab now!

Advice for Seniors

COVID risk medium Recently there have been no more than 8 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE; see our annex and riskometer opposite.

Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and your booster and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.

Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)

Like Health Minister Sajid Javid and Sir Kier Starmer, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail, vulnerable, and unlucky will need to be admitted to hospital.

Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:

get your booster vaccine six months after your second jab;
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, ventilate by keeping doors and windows open as far as is practicable;
avoid crowded indoor settings and minimise TIME near strangers;
self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated and children, in order of prevalence, are said to be headache (73%), runny nose (73%), sneezing (59%), sore throat (53%), and cough (49%), which are often hard to distinguish from a common cold;
respect others and give them space.

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

Annex to 31st October update

Commentary

Not much to report this week as the media turned its attention to 'fishing wars' and the Climate Change conference (COP26) in Glasgow.

On Thursday the BBC reported the likelyhood of double vaccinated individuals with COVID passing it on to others in the same household ranged from about 25% if housemates are fully vaccinated to 38% if they are unvaccinated.

Click for BBC report Double vaccinated can still spread virus at home

Earlier on 22nd October the government had published SPI-M-O modelling projections of COVID hospital admissions for the coming autumn and winter.

Click for summary of modelling for scenarios for COVID-19 autumn and winter 2021-22

Click for list of the detailed modelling papers

The results suggest that cases will dip to a greater or lesser extent reaching a minimum by Christmas, then possibly rising in the spring as the effectiveness of the vaccines wanes and behaviour returns to normal. COVID hospital bed occupancy in the lead up to Christmas is expected to remain well below the peak in January 2020 but that said COVID patients will add significantly to pressure on NHS hospitals during the winter.

The usual charts showing vaccination take-up and COVID cases over time by age band can be found in the Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE weekly updates below.

COVID weekly video updates

Prof Tim Spector says estimated daily cases have risen close to the peak last January and explains why the PHE numbers under-report the extent of the virus.

Tim estimates about 1M booster jabs are being given a week, whereas 2M people a week are becoming eligible for a booster.

Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 28th October video update

The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 29th October started with a 10 minute presentation by Prof Christina Pagel about how the numbers have been changing. This was followed by a discussion about being more prepared for future crises.

Despite numbers dropping a little during half term it is thought cases will rise when children return to school as only 21% of those aged 12 - 15 years have been vaccinated in England, compared to 53% in Wales and 46% in Scotland.

Click to watch Independent SAGE 29th October video briefing

Dr John Campbell's blogs

Another commentator on Youtube expressing views on the COVID pandemic is Dr John Campbell, and it can be interesting to hear what he has to say.

In last Friday's blog Inconsistencies in official numbers he explains why he thought PHE is reporting inaccurate numbers. He also highlighted concerns about rising cases in the Netherlands, Serbia, Lithuania and Latvia.

U3A

Malvern U3A groups have resumed. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.

Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are being provided by some groups but not others.

Overseas travel

From 24th October travellers arriving from abroad need only take a Lateral Flow Test.

List of vaccines (unchanged)

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Valneva has been cancelled, and approval has not yet been sought for using Novavax in the EU and US although approval has been sought for use in third world countries.

For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed for the population of the UK, so it's possible the government will cancel orders for those vaccines marked in red which have been slow to come to market.

COVID-19 vaccine	Doses ordered (million)	Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C	40+60+35	Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge	100	Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C	7+10	Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose	60+40 order cancelled	A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021.
Janssen, single dose	20	Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Novavax	60 ?	A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, but approval has not yet been sought in EU and US. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials.
GSK Sanofi	60 ?	Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible approval 2022.
Curevac	50 ?	Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine, but disappointing trial results. Future uncertain.

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Present rate of new cases and risk

The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has fallen to 435 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is 475 and the Malvern Hills 413.

In Wales the case rate has worsened to 600, whereas Scotland is doing best at 329.

As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW, so there is a long way to go.

The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors, without underlying conditions, catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW compared to the risk of dying from other causes. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.

The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.

About the UK COVID-19 final death toll

The UK is probably going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which may increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this could result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.

The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 141,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.

Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.

At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.

Click for YouTube video of Coronavirus: Health Committee questions Government Chief Scientific Adviser and NHS England 17 March 2020

On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.

So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.

Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.

With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.

A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.