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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

26th December 2021 (amended 27th)

RATE OF INCREASE SLOWING

COVID Alert Level 4

No new restrictions

Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. We also provide links to where further information can be found.

This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Contents

Summary

How to get vaccinated

More about vaccinations

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors

Annex/commentary

Further information:

How to request a COVID test

About the Zoe COVID symptom study

About the NHS contact tracing app

About the NHS COVID pass

Summary of links

Menu of archived pages

Summary

Cases of Omicron are now spreading rapidly across the UK, but not as quickly as some had thought. Hospital admissions have gone up a little, more so in London where cases are highest.

Sickness from Omicron is thought to be less than from Delta, but few deaths from Omicron can be expected before the end of next week when we may know a little more.

The primary impact from Omicron mentioned in the media seems to be sickness amongst airline pilots, train drivers and NHS staff. Children returning to school may cause cases to rise further in January.

The Health Secretary says there will be no further Covid restrictions in England before the New Year. But,  he said, 'people should remain cautious and celebrate outside on New Year's Eve if possible'.

Click to view our advice

Seniors should make sure to get their booster jab. Don't forget your flu vaccination as it is expected there could be a greater chance of dying were an unfortunate individual to catch flu and COVID at the same time.

Lateral Flow Device kits which only require a nose swab can be used to test for COVID at home, for example before either going to an event or visiting friends.

A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Click for the latest UK Government Coronavirus advice

How to get vaccinated

The effectiveness of the vaccines falls slightly over time so the most important thing everyone can do now is get a booster jab.

Under the government's plan to deal with the Omicron Emergency, all those aged 18+ years are now eligible to book a booster 3 months after their second dose.

For information about walk-in centres in Worcestershire go to the website:

www.swhealthcare.org.uk

and click the Vaccine Rollout tab at the top of the page.

Click for information about vaccination at the Three Counties Showground

Otherwise either see the NHS website for walk-in opening times and vaccine availability:

www.nhs.uk/grab-a-jab

Or click this link for more information and to book a vaccination on-line:

Book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

Note: the immuno-compromised may be offered a third jab as part of their primary course, followed by a booster 3 months later.

More about vaccinations

Plan

On the 19th November 2021 the JCVI issued recommendations accepted in Parliament by Sajid Javid. The plan was to vaccinate fully as many people as possible before the Omicron variant became dominant in the UK.

• adults aged 18+ years will now be eligible for a booster at least 3 months after their 2nd dose;

• those aged 12 - 17 will be eligible for a 2nd dose at least 3 months after their 1st dose;

• the immuno suppressed will be offered 3 doses and a booster at least 3 months after their 3rd dose;

• the booster will normally be either Moderna (half dose) or Pfizer;

• those that cannot tolerate mrna vaccines will be offered Astrazeneca;

MHRA has approved vaccination of those aged 5 - 11 years. The next hurdle is approval by JCVI.

The Omicron variant is now dominant and spreading rapidly, so there is still good reason to get a booster jab in January if you have not already done so.

Vaccinometer

So that you can see the overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK, our bar chart below shows the total number of:

1. first jabs;

2. second jabs;

3. booster and third jabs;

4. for comparison, the population of the UK broken down by age band.

Vaccinometer as of 26th December 2021

The population of the UK aged 12+ is about 58M, so were everyone in that age group to be vaccinated under the new plan the lower two blue lines showing 1st and 2nd doses should ideally reach 58M.

Currently there are about 6M in this age group who are unvaccinated, which is a lot, and 4M still to get their 2nd dose.

In comparison, if children aged 11 years and under are counted, the total population of the UK is roughly 66M.

Click for NHS video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated.

Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

Click for BBC report - Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK

Booster jabs

The number of booster jabs given in England can be found in a spreadsheet on the NHS England website. Look in the data section for the COVID-19 daily announced vaccinations Excel file which gives a breakdown of jabs by region and age.

Click for NHS COVID-19 vaccinations

A summary can also be found on the Coronavirus Dashboard.

To date about 47M have had two doses, and 33M booster doses have been administered, suggesting up to 14M still to boost in the UK.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A chart of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

Note: click the country list on the left hand side of the screen to add or remove countries from the chart.

The UK did well to start with but has fallen a little behind some other countries. For example Portugal has double vaccinated 89.3% of its population, Singapore 87.0% and Malaysia 78.0%, compared to 69.3% in the UK. Australia has overtaken the UK with 76.4% fully vaccinated and could soon open its borders to the fully vaccinated.

Israel has already boosted its population and is now trialing a second booster for those boosted more than 4 months ago.

Number of cases

During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose from 78,229 to 107,432 cases per day reflecting rising Omicron cases replacing Delta. The slope of the curve is reducing rather than rising exponentially which is unexpected good news.

The ZOE COVID Study estimates there are more likely 177,000 cases per day compared to 121,000 last week.

The chart below shows how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September 2020.

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 27th December 2021

Zooming in, the next chart shows how the rate of increase in daily UK cases has slowed slightly in the last week.

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2021 to 27th December 2021

During the last eight days the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 751,458  to 12,209,991.

In Worcestershire there have now been 96,871 confirmed cases of COVID-19  to 26th December, an increase of 5,339 on last week.

The next chart shows how daily cases in Worcestershire have risen steeply to 27th December as the wave of Omicron spreads out from London.

Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st September to 27th December 2021

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 26th December 2021

Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.

Cases in Worcestershire have roughly doubled in the last week.

Cases in Malvern Hills by age group

On the cases tab of the Coronavirus dashboard you can either select the county of Worcestershire or a local authority such as the Malvern Hills, and there you can find a heat map showing cases by age group over time and a chart comparing the number of cases under 60 years with those aged 60+.

The latest figures show the infection rate in both age groups rising with cases in the younger age group 5 times that of the older.

 Click for cases by specimen date age demographics in the Malvern Hills

Interactive maps

At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country.

Cases of Omicron are extremely high in London where the vaccination rate is below average, and cases are rising throughout the UK, especially in a band reaching from the SE to the NW of England. This band broadly matches areas of poorest vaccination on the Zoe Covid Study map.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.

Recent weekly cases to 22nd December are: North Malvern 58; Malvern Link 38; Pickersleigh 34; Barnards Green 32; Malvern Wells and Priory 44; Callow End and Hanley 38; Upton and Welland 38.

Cases are rising sharply and may have since doubled.

Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.

Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.

PHE figures

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 642 in the last week to 147,860 while the daily average fell to about 100 deaths per day despite cases increasing.

COVID-19 death rate 1st September 2021 to 27th December

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

The slight glitch in the red chart in the last couple of days reflects delayed reporting over Christmas.

Since England emerged from lockdown on 19th July almost 19,000 people have died of COVID-19; mostly the elderly.

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths now account for about 6%.

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 10th December 2021 (week 49 of 2021) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 10th December 2021

In week 49 there were 2 deaths in hospital in Bromsgrove; 1 death in hospital in Redditch; 2 deaths in hospital in Worcester; and 1 death in a hospice plus 1 at home in Wychavon.

In England and Wales 762 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 10th December, 28 less than the week before. Of these 50 were in a care home, 73 at home, 12 in a hospice, 619 in hospital and 8 elsewhere.

Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.

The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 24th December 2021.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (Delta)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 25th November 2021 when the daily death rate fell to 125.

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band for Delta variant

Those aged 60+ years account for 87% of deaths compared to 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

The majority of these deaths are likely to be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. Pregnant mothers, the overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.

An NHS leaflet offered to patients being admitted to hospital suggests we are at higher risk of complications from COVID-19 infection if we have one or more of the following conditions:

• Age over 70 or Male over 50;

• Lung problems (including asthma, COPD, emphysema, bronchitis, bronchiectasis;

• Heart disease

• Diabetes

• Chronic kidney disease

• Liver disease (eg hepatitis, cirrhosis)

• Brain or nerve problems (eg Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis, cerebral palsy)

• You have a condition that increases the risk of infection

• Take medication that affects the immune system, (eg steroids)

• Very obese (BMI over 40)

• Pregnancy

Some COVID deaths are of the fully vaccinated elderly, but remember that broadly speaking we are ten times more likely to die of something else; so don't be over-concerned.

This table can be updated towards the end of January once the majority of deaths are due to Omicron.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 26th December

Hospital admissions have started rising but not as fast as cases. The number of hospital beds occupied by COVID patients is about 20% of the peak last January. So far the main rise in COVID beds has been in London (see below).

Bed number by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS website:

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

 Note: see Weekly Admissions and Beds spreadsheets

For example compare figures for 1st December before Omicron, with 21st December figures for All beds COVID in London and the Midlands.

Comparison of All beds COVID data

COVID beds had risen 77% in London due to Omicron, compared to 14% in the Midlands.

For comparison the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic last January is also shown in the right hand column.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can also be found on the NHS England website. Cases have dropped contrary to the national trend.

A summary can be found on the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard which reports on 21st December there were 49 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 2 were ventilated beds; roughly 18% of the peak experienced last January.

Note: Healthcare statistics can be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.

Click to view Worcester healthcare figures

Alternatively,

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 2nd January) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by about 800,000 towards 13M with the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases rising towards 115,000.

In Worcestershire about 6,000 new cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant can be expected, and 600 in the Malvern Hills district.

We expect the number of UK COVID (28) deaths to increase by about 750 towards 148,750 during the 7 days ending 2nd January 2022, with the average daily death rate flat-lining at about 106 deaths per day. These are 'baked in' deaths of those already infected which cannot be avoided.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 5,339 new cases this week could translate to 10 COVID deaths per week by the second week in January, but deaths could be less if the mortality for Omicron is lower than that for Delta.

Daily hospital admissions are becoming difficult to predict. The trend is only slightly upwards despite a large increase in daily cases.

Longer term outlook

Professor John Edmunds with others at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have made estimates of the likely spread of the Omicron variant for different scenarios; see paper below.

Modelling the potential consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England

Daily cases in January/February might peak roughly in the range 600,000 to 800,000; daily hospital admissions 3,000 to 7,000; and deaths 500 to 1,200.

These are 'best guess' projections as data about the virus is limited.

Daily cases

Last week we made a simple back of the envelope calculation assuming cases follow a simple S-shaped Logistic Curve  matched to the rise in cases of Omicron in order to provide an 'order of magnitude' estimate of what might happen.

Note: this illustration was to provide an indication of the likely direction of travel and it was thought the absolute figures could be out by a factor of 4.

We assumed the whole population has been booster vaccinated and that 75% are protected from symptomatic illness.

The next chart illustrated how daily cases might rise.

Illustration of possible rise in Omicron daily cases

The illustration suggested COVID cases could rise very rapidly towards one million cases per day peaking about the 11th January 2022.

NB: the current direction of travel suggests that this illustration could possibly over-estimate the peak in cases by a factor of 4.

We'll review trends again next Sunday. and after the reporting of statistics returns to normal following the Christmas and New  Year holiday, the Sunday after that.

Daily hospital admissions

Illustration of possible Omicron daily demand for hospital admission

If our illustration turns out a factor of 4 too high (see above) then UK daily hospital admissions might peak at 3,000.

The ambulance service is already hard pressed, aggravated by queuing to offload patients at hospitals, so might be overwhelmed by Omicron related 999 calls without military assistance, unless of course sickness from Omicron turns out to be a lot lower than that for Delta.

A double 'whammy' must be anticipated as doctors and nurses fall sick coinciding with increasing hospital admissions. Likewise for a few weeks there is likely to be a shortage of all those providing essential services including shop staff, refuse collectors, firemen, police, paramedics, teachers, power industry workers, telecom engineers and delivery drivers.

All branches of society should be making contingency plans to cope with the possibility of an abnormal number of workers off sick in January.

London hospital beds are likely to be the first to come under pressure if the admission rate becomes to high, so worth keeping an eye on.

Deaths

Deaths have been occuring on average three weeks or so after testing COVID positive.

Illustration of possible Omicron daily deaths in UK

If the peak is reduced by a factor of 4 (see above) the death rate might rise from 120 to 300 deaths per day, or possibly less if Omicron causes fewer deaths than the Delta variant.

The situation, and need for further protective measures remains uncertain. A Circuit Breaker would not significantly reduce the death toll but would simply spread out deaths over a longer period of time.

Ratios

For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases have been a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' hospital admissions and deaths for Delta during December were expected to follow daily cases very roughly in the ratio:

• Hospital admissions 1:50 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.

• Deaths 1:300 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.

• UK Hospital bed occupancy - one  fifth of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.

The ratios may improve now that Omicron has replaced Delta but we will probably have to wait until the middle of January to find out.

Advice for Seniors

Recently there have been no more than 10 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE; see our annex and riskometer opposite.

6M people remain unvaccinated in the UK and you tell us of obstinate people in Malvern who refuse to get vaccinated.  Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and your booster and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.

Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)

Like Health Minister Sajid Javid and Sir Kier Starmer, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail, vulnerable, and unlucky will need to be admitted to hospital.

In these increasingly uncertain times the simple safeguards to remember are to:

• book your booster dose as soon as you are contacted by either your GP or the NHS; between five days and two weeks after the booster most people should be well protected from severe illness caused by the Delta variant and most probably Omicron.

• wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

• wear either a well fitting FACE covering, FFP2, or N95 face mask when unavoidably near other people for example when in shops, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

• SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

• preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or put a HEPA air purifier in the room;

• avoid crowded indoor settings and minimise TIME near strangers;

• self-isolate and take a test if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five symptoms amongst the double vaccinated and children, in order of prevalence, are said to be runny nose (74%), headache (72%), sneezing (60%), sore throat (48%), and persistent cough (48%), which are often hard to distinguish from a common cold - you might alternatively suffer from fever with a temperature of up to 103 deg F, and a reduction in sense of taste (see note 3);

• take a Lateral Flow test before visiting others (see notes 4 and 5);

• respect others and give them space.

 Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) The COVID Symptom Study people suggest that if you have symptoms of a common cold there is currently a 1 in 3 chance you might have COVID.

4) If you plan to attend either a meeting or event take a Lateral Flow test before you go to check you are not taking Omicron with you.

5) If you are organising a meeting, ask those attending to take a Lateral Flow test immediately beforehand.

6) Think twice about attending an indoor event with lots of children present who could be spreading the virus.

Annex

Commentary

During the last week, contrary to expectations, the rate of rise in daily cases slowed down. This may have had something to do with:

• the public becoming more cautious
• the booster programme
• half term

This week

On Monday we watched some talks by Dr John Campbell on YouTube. In one he talks about a study into the Omicron virus in China which finds the virus is extremely infectious but lodges in the Bronchi, not reaching deeper into the lungs causing Pneumonia. The conclusion seems to be that many of us will catch Omicron but it is milder than Delta so fewer patients will be admitted to hospital.

Click to watch Dr John Campbell's talk on Omicron Science

Click to watch Dr John Campbell talk to DW news about situation in Europe

Dr John Campbell also talks to Danish Professor Hoiby about taking care to inject into muscle and not directly into the bloodstream. Click to watch video about aspiration

It was announced the Sotrovimab monoclonal antibody, which is administered as a transfusion, would become available on the NHS.

Click for BBC report - Covid: Vulnerable NHS patients to be offered new drug

The media went into a frenzy about whether there would be a UK lockdown before or after Christmas, but the PM in a press interview inferred the situation was finely balanced and more information was needed before a decision could be taken. That seemed to rule out further controls before Christmas.

Click for BBC report - Covid: No new measures in England but we rule nothing out, says PM

In our view Sir Kier Starmer does the public no service, during this period of the epidemic, by repeatedly saying that people have no confidence in the PM - however Kier probably did help the Liberals win Shrewsbury!

Paul Hunter, professor of health protection and medicine at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News that the PM was probably right to wait for more information.

On Tuesday the PM announced there would be no further restrictions in England before Christmas and the situation would be kept under review, whilst in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon effectively cancelled New Year festivities. There will be similar restricions in Wales and Northern ireland

On Wednesday the Novavax vaccine was authorised for use in the EU.

The period of quarantine for COVID-19 was reduced from 10 days to 7 days for those that report a negative Lateral Flow test on days 6 and 7. This is to enable people to get back to work more quickly.

Click for BBC report - Covid: Self-isolation cut from 10 days to seven with negative tests

MHRA approved the Pfizer vaccine at reduced dose for those aged 5 - 11 years. Implementation depends on JCVI recommendation, and vaccination could be limited to the most vulnerable to start with.

UK regulator approves use of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in 5 to 11-year olds

Initial UKHSA data suggests Omicron results in up to 70% fewer hospital admissions than Delta in younger age groups.

Click for BBC report - Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care

On Thursday Prof Tim Spector in his weekly Zoe COVID study update said Omicron was spreading mostly in those aged 18 - 30 year.

Prof Jenny Harries of UKHSA said though Omicron seems to cause milder illness in young people, the disease had not yet spread to Seniors so there was not comparable data for older age groups.

A UKHSA report suggests vaccine effectiveness might fall by 15 - 25 % ten weeks after the booster.

On Friday the minutes of the last SAGE meeting were published. These provide a good summary of the current situation which can be summarised as - the future remains largely unpredictable as little is known about the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

Click to view SAGE minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 23 December 2021

On Monday 27th Sajid Javid the Health Secretary said there would be no further Covid restrictions in England before the new year. But,  he said, 'people should remain cautious and celebrate outside on New Year's Eve if possible'.

What might happen next

Cases of Omicron have overtaken Delta in London and most regions. UK cases can be expected to rise further after Christmas and into the New Year, but how sick the virus makes us has yet to be established and no doubt the government will be watching the graphs of hospital admissions, hospital bed occupancy and workers off sick very carefully ready to propose further protective measures if the upward curve becomes too steep.

COVID video updates

The usual charts can normally be found in the Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE weekly updates.

This week there was a good pre Christmas update from Tim Spector:-

Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 22nd December update

See also Tim's 2021 COVID Christmas and New Year tips

There was no Independent SAGE update on 24th December.

Independent SAGE have drafted their views on the forthcoming COVID inquiry; they strike a slightly negative tone when surely that is something for the inquiry to determine.

Click to read document: Independent SAGE and the Inquiry into the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK

Omicron update

UKHSA publishes a useful daily update on the Omicron numbers and a chart.

Click for UKHSA COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

U3A

Nothing to report

Overseas travel

Refer to current government advice, and prepare contingency plans in case circumstances change.

From 18th December 2021 UK tourist were banned from entering France. Perhaps that will be reviewed now that cases in France are as high as in the UK?

Click for BBC report - France travel ban: UK tourists need essential reason for entry

From 20th December it sounds as though UK tourists may be banned from entering Germany and Austria due to fears about Omicron.

From 10th January 2022, travellers to the EU may have to show evidence of a booster vaccination if 9 months have elapsed since their last jab.

Click for Guardian report

List of vaccines

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though for now the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca held in reserve.

Valneva has been cancelled, and approval has not yet been sought for using Novavax in the EU and US although approval has been sought for use in third world countries.

For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed in 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022 for the population of the UK. The government has now signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Present rate of new cases and risk

The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week is shown in the following table.

Seven day Case Rate per 100,000 reported 27th December 2021

Cases have roughly doubled since last week reflecting the spread of Omicron.

As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW, so there is a long way to go.

Based on back of the envelope sums in earlier blogs, the probability of fully vaccinated Seniors, without underlying conditions, catching and dying from the Delta variant of COVID-19 was possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year  so we judged the risk fairly LOW compared to the risk of dying from other causes. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.

Rumour is Omicron will cause less serious illness than Delta.

The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.

Back to top

How to request a COVID test

In order to protect others it is important to get a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with either classic COVID symptoms, or cold and flu like symptoms which can be caused by the Delta variant.

There are now two types of test you can get. The more accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.

Click for government guidance on types of tests

Getting a PCR test

Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:

https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test

We feel the website discourages people from seeking a PCR test who don't have all the classic symptoms. If you feel strongly enough, press on answering the questions so as to get your PCR test.

In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

Alternatively settle for a 'Nasal swab' Lateral Flow Device test in the comfort of your own home (see below).

According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore.

There is also a COVID testing station at the Worcester Royal Hospital for screening patients before admission.

If you cannot get to these you can order a home PCR test kit.

If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days.

Getting a Lateral Flow Device test

Lateral Flow Device tests (LFD) can either be booked at Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, or taken at home.

The test is intended to screen those who do not show the classic symptoms of COVID-19 and provides a means to check you are 'virus free' at home - either before visiting an elderly person, going to work, or attending a crowded event.  It also provides a means to check whether or not you have Coronavirus if you are feeling poorly with cold and flu like symptoms.

You can collect home test kits, for example packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from Malvern library, the Co-op, and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park.

If collecting from a pharmacy you now have to go on-line and get a collection code to present to the pharmacy in order to obtain a pack of 7 tests. This involves giving NHS Test and Trace your email and/or mobile phone number and address.

http://www.gov.uk/get-collect-code

The LFD now comes in two versions.

• The Throat and Nose Swab kit;

• The Nose Swab only kit (Orient Gene, Acon Flowflex and MP Biomedicals).

 (Lateral Flow Device cassette shown on the right).

ACON Flowflex comes in a blue and white pack.

Orient Gene comes in a green and white pack.

MP Biomedicals come in a blue, white and grey pack.

Click for instructions for using the LFD test kits

Leaflet at Boots the Chemist

The new Nasal swab test kit which only requires a nose swab is the easiest to use and the best one to get but it is not yet widely available. On 10th November we found Boots in Church Street and Malvern Library were still supplying the old Throat and Nose kit; Murrays in Church Street had the new kits and Malvern library thought the library in St John's Worcester might have the new kits.

Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern

Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.

Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests

In our opinion, many Seniors will find the classic Throat and Nose Swab home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface before swabbing the nose. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.

The Nose Swab kit is by far the best one for testing yourself at home.

If you test COVID positive you should isolate and take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result.

NHS Test and Trace want people to report the result of their home LFD tests within 24 hours at:

www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result

This helps NHS Test and Trace monitor where the issue of the free LFD tests is proving most effective and the spread of the disease.

However, it's tedious to enter your Lateral Flow Test result on the government website and we imagine many people now don't bother.

Nose swab home test kit obtained from Murrays

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart-phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.

There are questions allowing you to enter your vaccine type and whether any side effects; this now includes boosters and flu jabs.

About the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you may be advised to self-isolate

The rules for contacts self isolating keep changing. The latest is that if you are unvaccinated you must isolate for 10 days.

If you are fully vaccinated you can alternatively take Lateral Flow tests for 7 days. Should you test positive you should isolate and then take a PCR test to confirm.

Bear in mind double vaccinated individuals can still catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others.

About the NHS app and Covid Pass

An NHS COVID Pass shows your coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination details and/or test results. This is your COVID-19 status. You may be asked to show your pass to travel abroad, or at events and venues in England asking for proof of your COVID-19 status.

For large UK events you may get in either by the fact:

• you are fully-vaccinated;

• you have had COVID as recorded by a positive PCR test;

• you have taken and reported a recent Lateral Flow test.

You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status.

Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app

If you don't have a smartphone you should be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.

Click to login from a desktop computer or laptop

You can use your NHS  login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home, which must be done within 24 hours.

Summary of Links

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website

COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021

Tiers

Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas

Statistics

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Modelling

A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths

Reports

ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

Help:

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help

Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus

Here you will find a useful link,

'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'

which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland

Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own