Blogs > Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors9th January 2022 DAILY CASES LEVELLING OFF Hospitals under pressure No new restrictions PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. We also provide links to where further information can be found. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus ContentsFurther information: About the Zoe COVID symptom study About the NHS contact tracing app SummaryThe incidence of Omicron is high across the whole of the UK and many people will be exposed to the virus in coming days and weeks. Daily cases could start falling within the next week or two and then the pressure on hospitals should lessen. Two doses of the vaccine plus the booster jab should protect most healthy Seniors from hospitalisation, but continue to take care as it appears the vaccines give little protection from becoming infected. Lateral Flow Device kits which only require a nose swab can be used to test for COVID at home, for example before either going to an event or visiting friends. A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard. Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages. Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard Click for the latest UK Government Coronavirus advice
How to get vaccinatedThe effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so the most important thing everyone can do now is get their booster jab. Under the government's plan to deal with the Omicron Emergency, all those aged 18+ years are now eligible to book a booster 3 months after their second dose. For information about walk-in centres in Worcestershire go to the website: and click the Vaccine Rollout tab at the top of the page. Click for information about vaccination at the Three Counties Showground Otherwise either see the NHS website for walk-in opening times and vaccine availability: Or click this link for more information and to book a vaccination on-line: Book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk) Note: the immuno-compromised may be offered a third jab as part of their primary course, followed by a booster 3 months later. More about vaccinationsPlanOn the 19th November 2021 the JCVI issued recommendations accepted in Parliament by Sajid Javid. The plan was to vaccinate fully as many people as possible before the Omicron variant became dominant in the UK. Good progress was made, but vaccination rates have slowed in the New Year.
MHRA has approved vaccination of those aged 5 - 11 years and JCVI has recommended vaccination in clinically vulnerable groups The Omicron variant is now dominant and spreading rapidly, so there is still good reason to get your booster jab in January if you have not already done so. VaccinometerSo that you can see the overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK, our bar chart below shows the total number of:
Vaccinometer as of 9th January 2022 The population of the UK aged 12+ is about 58M, so were everyone in that age group to be vaccinated under the new plan the lower two blue lines showing 1st and 2nd doses should ideally reach 58M. Progress towards that goal is now slow. Currently there are about 6M in this age group who are unvaccinated, which is a lot, and 4M still to get their 2nd dose. In comparison, if children aged 11 years and under are counted, the total population of the UK is roughly 66M. Click for NHS video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated. Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard. Click for BBC report - Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK Vaccination of childrenThe following table shows the percentage of first doses in children in the UK.
Source: Independent SAGE 7th January 2022 Booster jabsThe number of booster jabs given in England can be found in a spreadsheet on the NHS England website. Look in the data section for the COVID-19 daily announced vaccinations Excel file which gives a breakdown of jabs by region and age. Click for NHS COVID-19 vaccinations A summary can also be found on the Coronavirus Dashboard. The government says everyone aged 18+ years has been offered a booster jab. To date about 48M have had two doses, and 35M booster doses have been administered, suggesting up to 13M still to boost in the UK. Vaccinations WorldwideA chart of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website. Click for worldwide statistics Note: click the country list on the left hand side of the screen to add or remove countries from the chart. The UK did well to start with but has fallen a little behind some other countries. For example Portugal has double vaccinated 89.8% of its population, Singapore 87.0% and Malaysia 78.2%, compared to 69.8% in the UK. Australia has overtaken the UK with 77.1% fully vaccinated and could soon open its borders to the fully vaccinated. Israel has already boosted its population and is now trialing a second booster for those boosted more than 4 months ago.
Number of casesDuring the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose from about 156,000 to 167,376 cases per day reflecting the continuing spread of the Omicron virus. The ZOE COVID Study estimates there are more likely 201,000 cases per day compared to 205,000 last week. The chart below shows how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September 2020. Cases of Omicron have been rising at an unprecedented rate.
UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 9th January 2022 Zooming in, the next chart shows in more detail how daily cases have levelled off in the last few days. We'll have to wait and see whether the peak of the epidemic has been reached, or numbers take a step upwards, for example, following the return of children to school.
UK daily confirmed COVID cases 12th December 2021 to 9th January 2022 During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 1.2M to 15.0M. In Worcestershire there have now been 114,340 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 9,051 on last week. The next chart shows how daily cases in Worcestershire, which have more than tripled as the Omicron variant has replaced Delta, appear to be levelling off.
Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st December 2021 to 9th January 2022 The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester. Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 9th January 2022 Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard. The main point to note is there are many cases of COVID in the county, and possibly twice the number testing positive are infectious. Cases in Malvern Hills by age groupOn the cases tab of the Coronavirus dashboard you can either select the county of Worcestershire or a local authority such as the Malvern Hills, and there you can find a heat map showing cases by age group over time and a chart comparing the number of cases under 60 years with those aged 60+. The latest figures show the infection rate in both age groups rising with cases in the younger age group double that of the older. The rolling number of cases per 100,000 per week has risen to 591 in the over 60s and 1,330 in those aged 0 - 59 years (up almost 100% on the week before). Click for cases by specimen date age demographics in the Malvern Hills Interactive mapsAt the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country. Cases of Omicron are extremely high across the whole of the UK. Most people are likely to be exposed to the virus in coming days and weeks. Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone. Recent weekly cases to 4th January are: North Malvern 100; Malvern Link 69; Pickersleigh 74; Barnards Green 56; Malvern Wells and Priory 47; Callow End and Hanley 68; Upton and Welland 47. Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app. Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)
Number of deathsStatistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. PHE figuresPublic Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 1,303 in the last week to 150,154 with the daily average ending the week at 186 compared to 116 just before Christmas.
COVID-19 death rate 1st September 2021 to 9th January 2022 Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard An explanation for the steep upturn in deaths since Christmas is needed given 'loose talk' about the Omicron variant being less dangerous. Since England emerged from lockdown on 19th July about 21,000 people have died of COVID-19; mostly the elderly. In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths curently account for about 11% a not insignificant number. ONS figuresThe Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland. Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet) The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 24th December 2021 (week 51 of 2021) is shown below. Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 24th December 2021 Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table (after correction by ONS). There were 2 deaths at home and 1 in hospital in Bromsgrove; 3 deaths in hospital in Redditch; 1 death at home and 2 in hospital in Worcester;1 death in a care home in Wychavon; and 1 death in hospital in Wyre Forest In England and Wales 753 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 24th December, 95 more than the week before. Of these 62 were in a care home, 95 at home, 8 in a hospice, 676 in hospital and 5 elsewhere. Most of these deaths were probably due the Delta variant. The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard. NHS England figures for WorcestershireThe table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 7th January 2022.
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard The Dashboard records that between 2 January 2022 and 8 January 2022 there was 1 death within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test in the Malvern Hills. Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (Delta)NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 25th November 2021 when the daily death rate fell to 125.
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band for Delta variant Those aged 60+ years account for 87% of deaths compared to 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020. The majority of these deaths are likely to be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. Pregnant mothers, the overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk. An NHS leaflet offered to patients being admitted to hospital suggests we are at higher risk of complications from COVID-19 infection if we have one or more of the following conditions:
Note: we hope to be able to add data for Omicron by the end of January. Healthcare numbersThe UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.
Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 9th January 2022 Numbers are significantly up this week, reflecting the steep rise in Omicron cases, and hospitals are coming under pressure, aggravated by unusually high staff absence. The number of hospital beds occupied by COVID patients is now about 45% of the peak last January. Bed numbers by region in EnglandTabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and these give a good indication of direction of travel: Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.
Comparison of All beds COVID data for London and Midlands In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds rose by 10% in London, where Omicron seeded, and now appears to be flat-lining; while in the Midlands COVID beds rose 38%. For the same period, COVID beds in England rose from 12,395 to 16,163, an increase of 30% but in the last few days the rate of increase has slowed and an increase of no more than 20% is expected next week. For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic last January is shown in red in the right hand column. Some COVID beds are now said to be occupied by patients who either came into hospital for other reasons or caught COVID in hospital - these patients are mostly not ill with COVID but have to be allocated a COVID bed after testing positive.
Worcestershire hospital bedsTabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can also be found on the NHS England website. A summary can be found on the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard which reports on 4th January there were 71 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 5 are ventilated beds; roughly 26% of the peak experienced last January and a significant step up on the 50 or so beds in recent weeks. Note: Healthcare statistics can be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals. Click to view Worcester healthcare figures Alternatively, Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Forecast for the week aheadTrends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 16th January) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by a further 1.2M towards 15.8M, with the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases remaining fairly level. In Worcestershire about 9,000 new cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant can be expected, and up to 900 cases in the Malvern Hills district. The number of UK COVID (28) deaths may increase by 1,750 towards 152,000 during the 7 days ending 16th January 2022, with the average daily death rate increasing to somewhere in the range 200 to 300 deaths per day following the rise in hospital admissions. In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 9,051 new cases this week could translate to a maximum of 18 COVID deaths per week in the first week of February, but possibly fewer if the Omicron variant is found to cause less severe illness than Delta. Daily hospital admissions may rise by up to 20% based on recent NHS England trends.
Longer term outlookProfessor John Edmunds with others at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have made estimates of the likely spread of the Omicron variant for different scenarios; see paper below. Modelling the potential consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England Daily cases in January/February might peak roughly in the range 600,000 to 800,000; daily hospital admissions 3,000 to 7,000; and deaths 500 to 1,200. These are 'best guess' projections as data about the virus is still limited. Another forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic The UCL model suggests hospital admissions could peak on 29th Jan 2022 at about 2,500 per day, with deaths peaking at about 250 per day shortly afterwards. Daily casesThree weeks ago we made a simple back of the envelope calculation assuming cases follow a simple S-shaped Logistic Curve roughly matched to the rise in cases of Omicron in order to provide an order of magnitude estimate of what might happen during January and when cases might peak. With this function, numbers rise exponentially at first, then progressively slowing down as the number of individuals left to infect reduces. The number of daily cases is the derivative or slope of the curve which can be easily calculated using an Excel spreadsheet. We optimistically assumed the whole population had been booster vaccinated and that 75% were protected from symptomatic illness. The limiting value of cases has been further adjusted to take account of recent numbers and the levelling off of daily cases The next chart illustrates how daily cases could have peaked around 7th January 2022 and might be beginning to fall - but there is no guarantee this will happen. Illustration of possible peak in UK Omicron daily cases UKSHA say the protection from being infected by Omicron is actually only 44% for the triple jabbed, while only 50% of the UK population is triple vaccinated. So there ought still to be a large pool of individuals waiting to be infected. Adults returning to their workplace, and children to school in the New Year might therefore cause cases either to step up, or fall more slowly broadening the peak. Other pundits are anticipating cases will start falling in the second half of January, based on what happened in South Africa. Daily hospital admissionsThe next chart is a projection of daily hospital admissions, assuming the same ratio of cases as Delta, delayed by 10 days, showing admissions peaking about 16th January.
Illustration of possible Omicron daily demand for hospital admission Assuming Omicron hospital stays are shorter than for Delta the NHS may be able to sustain such case levels, but just in case NHS England is setting up Nightingale surge hubs. Click for BBC report - Nightingale surge hubs to be set up in eight hospitals, NHS England says Encouragingly, in the last week COVID bed occupancy in London has fallen slightly. The ambulance service is hard pressed, due to staff absences aggravated by queuing to offload patients at hospitals, so might be overwhelmed by Omicron related 999 calls without military assistance - unless severe illness turns out to be much lower than that caused by Delta. During January, sickness and quarantining could lead to a shortage of those providing essential services including shop staff, refuse collectors, firemen, police, paramedics, teachers, power industry workers, telecom engineers and delivery drivers. The government has asked public bodies to prepare contingency plans for scenarios of 10%, 20% and 25% absence. DeathsDeaths from Delta have been occurring on average three weeks or so after testing COVID positive. In order to account for the recent rise in daily deaths, our revised illustration assumes the ratio of deaths to daily cases is the same as that for Delta and that the time between testing positive and death is reduced to ten days.
Illustration of possible Omicron daily deaths in UK Up until the New Year, Omicron deaths should have been largely hidden by the tail end of Delta deaths averaging about 100 deaths per day and we find it difficult to understand why the daily death rate rate has increased so sharply in recent days. Our chart suggests deaths might possibly rise to a peak of about 350 deaths per day towards the end of January. Note of caution: so far Omicron has been circulating mostly in those aged under 35 years, so we have yet to see how Omicron affects the elderly, and there is insufficient data on deaths for a reliable forecast to be made. RatiosFor a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases have been a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' hospital admissions and deaths for Delta during December were expected to follow daily cases very roughly in the ratio:
These ratios may 'improve' now that Omicron has replaced Delta but we will probably have to wait until towards the end of January for reliable data..
Advice for SeniorsWe judge the risk of exposure to the Omicron variant now to be HIGH; see our riskometer opposite. How this affects you will depend on your vaccination status. UKHSA say those who have had two doses plus a booster have roughly a 12% chance of being hospitalised compared to the unvaccinated. 6M people remain unvaccinated in the UK and for many time is running out; perhaps 6,000 will die unecessarily. Recently there have been no more than 11 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we currently judge the risk of death for triple vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE . In these increasingly uncertain times, when it is quite possible, despite being triple vaccinated, for Seniors to become ill with the Omicron variant of COVID-19, the simple safeguards to remember are to:
Notes: 1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel. 2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away. 3) The COVID Symptom Study people suggest that if you have symptoms of a common cold there is currently a 1 in 2 chance you might have COVID. 4) If you plan to attend either a meeting or event take a Lateral Flow test before you go to check you are not taking Omicron with you. 5) If you are organising a meeting, ask those attending to take a Lateral Flow test immediately beforehand. 6) Think twice about attending an indoor event with lots of children present who could be spreading the virus.
AnnexCommentaryContinued caution is advised because the Omicron variant is spreading like wildfire, but we could be near the point where cases begin to fall. This weekOn Tuesday the PM held a press conference. No new restrictions but the NHS can expect a 'bumpy ride' during January. Click for PM opening statement at COVID-19 press conference: 4 January 2022 Click to watch COVID-19 press conference (4 January 2021) On Friday the UKHSA published a report on vaccine effectiveness COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 1 (6 January 2022) We find this information difficult to absorb, and suggest UKHSA add a summary explaining conclusions for the general public.
What might happen nextSee our longer term forecast for general direction of travel. COVID video updatesThe usual charts can be found in the Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE weekly updates. Click to watch Zoe COVID Symptom Study update on 6th January 2022 presented by Dr Claire Steves. Tim Spector should be back next week. Bullet points:
The Independent SAGE update starts with a detailed look at the charts. Click to watch Independent SAGE update on 7th January 2022 Both videos are worth viewing by 'chart-watchers' who have the time.
U3ANothing to report
Overseas travelSituation remains fluid, refer to current government advice, and prepare contingency plans in case circumstances change in the country you are visiting.
List of vaccinesHere is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though for now the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca held in reserve. Valneva has been cancelled, and approval has not yet been sought for using Novavax in the EU and US although approval has been sought for use in third world countries. For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed in 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022 for the population of the UK. The government has now signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023. The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals. Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
Present rate of new casesThe average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week copied from the Coronavirus Dashboard is shown in the following table.
Seven day Case Rate per 100,000 reported 9th January 2022 Levels of infection are extremely high and still going up. As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW, so there is a long way to go.
How to request a COVID testIn order to protect others it is important to get a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with either classic COVID symptoms, or cold and flu like symptoms which can be caused by the Delta variant. There are now two types of test you can get. The more accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test. Click for government guidance on types of tests Getting a PCR testClick the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus: https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test We feel the website discourages people from seeking a PCR test who don't have all the classic symptoms. If you feel strongly enough, press on answering the questions so as to get your PCR test. In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119. Alternatively settle for a 'Nasal swab' Lateral Flow Device test in the comfort of your own home (see below). According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore. There is also a COVID testing station at the Worcester Royal Hospital for screening patients before admission. If you cannot get to these you can order a home PCR test kit. If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days. Getting a Lateral Flow Device testLateral Flow Device tests (LFD) can either be booked at Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, or taken at home. The test is intended to screen those who do not show the classic symptoms of COVID-19 and provides a means to check you are 'virus free' at home - either before visiting an elderly person, going to work, or attending a crowded event. It also provides a means to check whether or not you have Coronavirus if you are feeling poorly with cold and flu like symptoms. You can collect home test kits, for example packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from Malvern library, the Co-op, and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park. If collecting from a pharmacy you now have to go on-line and get a collection code to present to the pharmacy in order to obtain a pack of 7 tests. This involves giving NHS Test and Trace your email and/or mobile phone number and address. http://www.gov.uk/get-collect-code The LFD now comes in two versions.
(Lateral Flow Device cassette shown on the right). ACON Flowflex comes in a blue and white pack. Orient Gene comes in a green and white pack. MP Biomedicals come in a blue, white and grey pack. Click for instructions for using the LFD test kits
Leaflet at Boots the Chemist The new Nasal swab test kit which only requires a nose swab is the easiest to use and the best one to get but it is not yet widely available. On 10th November we found Boots in Church Street and Malvern Library were still supplying the old Throat and Nose kit; Murrays in Church Street had the new kits and Malvern library thought the library in St John's Worcester might have the new kits. Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox. Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests In our opinion, many Seniors will find the classic Throat and Nose Swab home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface before swabbing the nose. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight. The Nose Swab kit is by far the best one for testing yourself at home. If you test COVID positive you should isolate and take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result. NHS Test and Trace want people to report the result of their home LFD tests within 24 hours at: www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result This helps NHS Test and Trace monitor where the issue of the free LFD tests is proving most effective and the spread of the disease. However, it's tedious to enter your Lateral Flow Test result on the government website and we imagine many people now don't bother.
Nose swab home test kit obtained from Murrays
About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart-phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows. For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave. There are questions allowing you to enter your vaccine type and whether any side effects; this now includes boosters and flu jabs.
About the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020. Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you may be advised to self-isolate The rules for contacts self isolating keep changing. The latest is that if you are unvaccinated you must isolate for 10 days. If you are fully vaccinated you can alternatively take Lateral Flow tests for 7 days. Should you test positive you should isolate and then take a PCR test to confirm. Bear in mind double vaccinated individuals can still catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others.
About the NHS app and Covid PassAn NHS COVID Pass shows your coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination details and/or test results. This is your COVID-19 status. You may be asked to show your pass to travel abroad, or at events and venues in England asking for proof of your COVID-19 status. For large UK events you may get in either by the fact:
You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status. Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app If you don't have a smartphone you should be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy. Click to login from a desktop computer or laptop You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home, which must be done within 24 hours.
Summary of LinksSymptomsArticle about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
Reporting and how to obtain a testHow to get a test https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
GuidanceUK government Coronavirus guidance COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website
COVID Alert statesGuidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
TiersGuidance on tiers: what you need to know Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
StatisticsUK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview UK government Coronavirus Dashboard Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet) NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website. Click for chart showing % vaccinated
ModellingA forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ReportsONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
The bigger pictureWorldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases World Health Organisation info
Window on the USACentre for Disease Control (CDC) American Association of Retired People (AARP)
WorcestershireHelp: http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information: http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus Here you will find a useful link, 'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire' which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
MiscellaneousSpanish Flu Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government: Link to Scottish Government website Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government: Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own |
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Last updated 14th January 2022 |