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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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10th July 2022

CASES OF COVID-19 AND HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS STILL RISING

Remember to get your Spring Booster

Monkeypox virus alert

Polio found in London sewage

Preamble

For more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have now deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages.

The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

The ONS infection survey
Registered deaths (ONS, NHS)
NHS hospital bed occupancy, and
The Zoe Health Study

Now the epidemic is largely over the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer. This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date.

Summary

How to get vaccinated

More about vaccinations

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Menu of archived pages

Summary

A new wave of COVID-19, caused by the Omicron BA.5 variant which the Wuhan vaccines rarely stop us catching, is sweeping the country.

Cases of COVID-19 have been rising sharply, but we have to get used to living with the virus, and most of those who have been fully vaccinated have little to worry about.

The prevalence of COVID-19 and daily hospital admissions in England which are already high rose by 20% last week and could rise for a week or two more before cases plateau and gradually fall - over weeks, possibly months.

The number of NHS beds occupied by COVID patients has been rising sharply so during July and possibly August there will be increasing pressure on the NHS which could delay treatments, extend waiting lists, and increase ambulance response times, perhaps in due course leading to increased 'excess deaths'.

The good news is that, because of the vaccines, the number of patients on ventilators and deaths is only 4% of that during the worst of the epidemic.

It's possible COVID (ONS) weekly deaths in England and Wales will creep up a little to somewhere between 400 and 600 in the next 3 weeks reflecting 'baked in' and rising hospital admissions. What happens will partly depend on the effectiveness of the Spring Boosters, which is largely unknown.

The likelyhood is many of us will catch the COVID-19 BA.5 variant in coming weeks despite being fully vaccinated.

Infections more than 3 months ago (that is from previous variants) are said to provide little protection from catching BA.5.

The lucky may either show few symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it.

Others could feel quite poorly and spend a few days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Many of those who have caught COVID report getting easily tired for some weeks afterwards.

The precautions to take are now a personal decision; see our advice.

The Zoe Health Study suggests as COVID cases continue to increase, you can reduce your risk of infection by wearing a high quality face mask in crowded areas, and avoiding meeting up with friends or family who have cold-like symptoms.

To counter vaccine waning and reduce the likelyhood of hospitalisation amongst the most vulnerable, a second COVID-19 booster jab is available to Seniors aged 75+ years known as the Spring Booster. UKHSA recommends everyone eligible should get it, but there are about 16% still to step forward.

Some surgeries are offering the Spring Booster, but if not you can get it at the Three Counties Showground vaccination centre (use brown gate).

Click for information about Walk-In Clinics

Click for information about the Spring Booster

Click to view our advice

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

There may be an Autumn booster programme for those aged 65+ years.

Monkeypox virus alert

Outbreaks of Monkeypox have been detected in Europe and the UK. It's a serious and now a notifiable disease. Click below for European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control factsheet:-

Factsheet for health professionals on Monkeypox

As of 4 July, the total number of monkeypox cases in the UK is 1,351.

This compares to 1,235 cases on 30th June, an increase of about 30 cases per day.

The overwhelming majority of cases are said to be in men who have sex with men, and 75% of cases are in London.

Click link: Monkeypox cases confirmed in England - latest UKHSA update

CNN says as monkeypox cases continue to rise globally, the World Health Organization plans to reassess whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.

The good news for Seniors is that vaccination for Smallpox, which we mostly had as children, should give protection from Monkeypox.

Polio

Polio is caused by a virus that spreads easily when an infected person coughs or sneezes. It can also be caught from food or water that's been in contact with the stools of someone who has the virus. Polio is a serious illness which can cause disablement and in some cases death.

Most Seniors will have been vaccinated against Polio when teenagers.

Parents are advised to check that their children's' vaccinations are up to date.

Click for government press release - Poliovirus detected in sewage from North and East London

How to get vaccinated for COVID-19 (unchanged)

Note: by now we expect most Seniors are fully vaccinated and if so you can skip this section.

Children aged 5 - 11 years can be offered the vaccine, though only 10% or so have had a first dose in England. This may be because either they have been recently infected or their parents are not keen.

All those aged 16+ years can book a booster 3 months after their second dose.

Click NHS link - Who can get a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine

For information about walk-in centres in Worcestershire go to the website:

www.swhealthcare.org.uk

and click the Vaccine Rollout tab at the top of the page.

Click for information about vaccination at the Three Counties Showground

Otherwise either see the NHS website for walk-in opening times and vaccine availability:

www.nhs.uk/grab-a-jab

Or click this link for more information and to book a vaccination on-line:

Book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

Or talk to your GP.

More about vaccinations

Vaccinometer

Our bar chart below shows the total number of:

first jabs;
second jabs;
booster and third jabs;
for comparison, the population of the UK broken down by age band.

COVID vaccination bar chart

Vaccinometer as of 8th April 2022

People are still coming forward to be vaccinated, but the rate is so slow expect to see little change to this chart during 2022.

The vaccination story is mixed. Vaccines protected the majority of the population from the Delta variant. We were then told 3 doses would be necessary to protect from the original Omicron variant, yet only 60% of the population has had 3 jabs, and this protection has been waning.

Fortunately, vaccination amongst Seniors is pretty good and most have had the Spring Booster to top up their protection.

Vaccination statistics are now of little relevance but can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

First booster jabs

The government says everyone aged 18+ years has been offered a (first)booster jab. To date about 50M have had two doses, and 40M booster doses have been administered, suggesting 10M still to boost in the UK; but those under 16 years are not yet eligible so there are probably 6M or so still to get a first booster. A booster was essential to protect Seniors from the original Omicron variant and hospitalisation.

Spring booster jabs for Seniors

Those aged 75+ are eligible for a second (Spring) booster which ideally should be 6 months after the first booster.

If you have COVID you must wait at least 28 days after infection before getting the jab.

You should be contacted by the NHS and invited to book your spring booster when it's due - our invitation came by email followed a week later by a letter. Try to book an appointment around 6 months after your last dose to get the best protection from your Spring Booster (check the date on your vaccination card).

New Court Surgery is currently not offering Spring Boosters so you may have to book your booster at a mass vaccination centre, such as the Three Counties Showground, either on-line or by phoning 119.

There are also walk-in appointments at the Three Counties Showground (see links in 'how to get vaccinated section' for days and times). Clinics may be suspended during large events.

Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Vaccination statistics

Protection against hospitalisation

After 3 months the Wuhan vaccines seem to give little protection from catching the Omicron variants of COVID-19 but importantly they are said to protect from going on to develop severe illness.

The UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports indicate the effectiveness of the vaccines against earlier variants - four months or so after a third dose vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation fell to about 80%, suggesting Seniors had been roughly 5 times less likely to go into hospital compared to an unvaccinated person.

Note: there has been insufficient time to gather reliable data on the Spring Booster and the latest variants BA.4 and BA.5, so for example, the protection offered against hospitalisation by BA.5 after a Spring booster is largely unknown.

Effectiveness against mortality

After a Booster the relative risk of death seems to be reduced by a factor of between 5 and 10.

Most people who die are aged 85+ years and most are fully vaccinated; this simply reflects that most of those who die are elderly, most of the elderly population is vaccinated, and the vaccines are not 100% effective.

Here is a link to the latest report so you can make up your own mind about the effectiveness of the vaccines.

Click for UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 27, 7th July 2022

Note: the next report will be in a months time, on 4th August 2022.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A chart of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

Hint: click the country list on the left hand side of the screen to add or remove countries from the chart.

Number of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.
The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.
PHE data gathered from PCR testing, mostly in hospitals, which underestimate infections by a factor of 6 or so.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimate that 2,154,000 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 29th June 2022; 18% more than last week compared to a 34% rise the week before that possibly suggesting we are approaching the top of the wave.

Click for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 8th July 2022

Date published	Prevalence (England)	Ratio of people with COVID
1st July 2022	1,829,100	1:30
8th July 2022	2,154,000	1:25

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

There is even more COVID in Scotland where 1:17 are infected, but cases are levelling off.

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study figures are shown in the following table.

	Prevalence (UK)	Estimated new infections per day
Last week	3,365,483	296,168
This week	4,026,483	339,265

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by Zoe Health Study

According to the more up-to-date Zoe figures, prevalence in the UK has gone up by 20% and daily cases by 14%.

Numbers testing COVID positive in Worcestershire (PHE)

Note: this section has been deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK; figures can still be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard - but these greatly underestimate the true number of infections. The direction of travel in Malvern is up.

Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that COVID weekly deaths are just beginning to rise as a consequence of the new wave of the BA.5 variant.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 240 deaths per day about 10th April; and fell to a minimum of 40 about 10th June. By 27th June deaths had risen slightly to 63 per day.

This is the most up-to-date indicator; the latest upturn suggesting the death rate could increase in proportion to rising hospital admissions. However the Spring Booster for the most vulnerable adults could limit the extent of any rise.

Note that some of the deaths reported by PHE could be people who die with COVID but not from it.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 24th June (week 25 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table, which gives the provisional total of deaths reported in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting over public holidays.

Deaths by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Districts of Worcs	Deaths 2020	Deaths 2021	Deaths 2022	Week 25	Population
Bromsgrove	164	142	40	0	98,529
Malvern Hills	61	98	48	1	77,545
Redditch	108	109	28	0	85,317
Worcester	87	134	31	1	103,542
Wychavon	157	154	52	0	126,240
Wyre Forest	171	132	40	0	100,957
TOTAL	748	769	239	2	592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 24th June 2022

In England and Wales 284 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 24th June, 22 more than the week before and a rise of 8%. Of these 31 were in a care home, 23 at home, 6 in a hospice, 221 in hospital and 3 elsewhere.

Chart of ONS deaths

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

Note: the steps in the chart above in weeks 18 and 22 were probably due to delayed reporting over the Easter, Mayday and Jubilee holidays.

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate shows ONS England deaths peaked at 160 deaths per day on 8th April and by 10th June had levelled off at 25 (seven day average).

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK, so COVID deaths in England now represent less than 2% of UK deaths.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 7th July 2022. Because the numbers are small they tend to fluctuate week to week.

Worcestershire	Cumulative deaths	Past week
Acute hospitals	1,103	5
Care hospitals	74	0
TOTAL	1,177	5

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (unchanged)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 8,378 recent deaths for the period 7th January 2022 to 19th March 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variant.

Age band	Number of COVID deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	19	0.2
20 - 39	81	1.0
40 - 59	557	6.7
60 - 79	2,804	33.5
80+	4,916	58.6

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band

The main point to note is those aged 60+ account for 92% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is the greatest risk factor but remember that because of vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new infections is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Hospital COVID cases (England)	Number	Change in last week
Patients currently in hospital	11,465	+2,076
Patients on ventilation	217	-2
Patients admitted daily	1,575	+285

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 6th July 2022

The main point to note is that while hospitalisations have been rising sharply the number of patients on ventilators is relatively small.

Note: at the peak of the epidemic about 4,000 patients were on ventilators.

The majority of those admitted to hospital with COVID are said to be aged over 85 years.

Roughly half are being treated for COVID, and the remainder being treated for another condition with COVID.

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of direction of travel:

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Region	1st July 2022	8th July 2022	15th January 2021
England	9,389	12,283	33,362
London	1,638	1,990	7,811
Midlands	1,741	2,428	5,890

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

Given the government has declared the COVID emergency over, there are a lot of people occupying hospital beds with COVID. Admittedly these are mostly not Intensive Care beds.

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds rose by 31% in England, 22% in London and 39% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Between 27 June 2022 and 3 July 2022, 108 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows an increase of 25% compared to the previous 7 days. There were 117 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 5 July 2022 compared to 81 the week before, of which 2 are on a ventilator.

Note: that's incredibly 40% of Worcestershire beds at the peak of the epidemic.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 25 June 2022 and 1 July 2022, for a third week running there have been no deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

It's possible there may be one or two deaths per week as a result of the BA.5 wave, but nothing to worry about.

Forecast for the week ahead

The number of COVID related deaths in England and Wales (as registered by ONS) may increase by about 350 in Week 26 ending 1st July, to be reported on 12th July.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 108 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of deaths to be 1:11 of admissions, then a maximum of 10 deaths per week can be expected towards the end of July.

NHS COVID bed occupancy in England reached a minimum of 3,800 in early June and has risen by 223% to 12,283 in the last 5 weeks. A further increase in bed occupancy seems inevitable as daily hospital admissions in England continue to rise.

Longer term outlook

We are supposed to have entered the endemic stage of the disease with a high background level of infection, falling in the summer as more time is spent outdoors, and then rising in the winter.

This will be modulated by new variants against which the vaccines might offer less protection, vaccines waning in effectiveness, booster shots, overseas travel during school holidays, and super-spreader events such as summer music festivals, so it's difficult if not impossible for models to predict what will happen.

We are already in early summer and instead of cases falling they are rising. Cases could dip a little in late August and September as we gradually emerge from the BA.5 wave before rising again in October/November.

The Omicron BA.1 variant became predominant in New Year 2022, followed by BA.2 and now BA.5 causing 3 waves of COVID so far, and there could be more to come as the virus evolves.

About 4% of those infected will suffer from symptoms of Long COVID. Long COVID caused by previous variants, such as Delta, could be extremely debilitating, but most cases attributable to Omicron are said to resolve in between 4 and 12 weeks.

While ONS deaths have reached a plateau of about 200 per week, the third wave of cases is resulting in steeply rising hospital admissions. This could cause the death rate to rise proportionally towards 600 COVID deaths per week in England in 3 to 4 weeks time.

However it's possible the figure could be lower due to the Spring Booster programme. Trends suggest the death rate will certainly reach 400 deaths per week.

What happens beyond that will depend on the amplitude and duration of the BA.5 wave; a similar wave, of roughly 4 weeks duration, peaked in Portugal in May 2022 and is subsiding so hopefully there is not a great deal to be concerned about.

A further peak in cases is possible in October/November 2022 when a UCL projection suggests deaths could rise to 200 per day before falling back to about 80 per day during the remainder of the winter.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A potentially compounding factor is that cases of Influenza A are beginning to rise in Australia, which points to the possibility of a significant outbreak of Influenza in the UK in the winter. Because of lockdowns there hasn't been much Influenza for two years and the immunity of the population may have dipped. Catching Influenza and COVID at the same time could be bad news so don't forget to get your Flu jab in September/October.

Click for NHS Guidance - National flu immunisation programme 2022 to 2023 letter updated 22 April 2022

The bottom line is that there could be a lot of COVID around for months, but because of the vaccines relatively few people are likely to die, and for most there should be little to worry about.

Providing UK COVID deaths remain below 100 per day, it seems unlikely the public and government will be concerned.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of exposure to COVID-19 has returned to HIGH in the UK and many European countries and this situation could continue for months.

See our riskometer opposite.

During this period of high prevalence, it is likely that, despite being fully vaccinated, many Seniors will at some time or other become ill with the Omicron BA.5 variant of COVID-19.

How this affects us will depend on any previous exposure to the virus, and vaccines giving protection from severe illness.

Those most at risk are said to include:

Seniors aged 75+ years who have not been fully vaccinated;
Seniors aged 75+ whose first booster is waning;
Pregnant women who have not been vaccinated.

In the last month there have been no more than 10 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we currently estimate the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be less than 1% per year which we judge LOW while the risk of Long COVID is a little higher.

Currently the chance of Seniors being hospitalised with COVID-19 in any period of 12 months is less than 4% which we judge moderately LOW.

Many people are now taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:

make sure your COVID vaccinations are fully up to date - you must have a Booster to obtain significant protection from hospitalisation and death, and if that was more than 6 months ago, desirably a Spring Booster.
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);
ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering, or better an FFP2 face mask (without a valve) when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room, which could also help with hay fever;
avoid crowded indoor settings;
avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;
ideally self-isolate for 5 to 10 days to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are runny nose, headache, sore throat, tiredness, and sneezing which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold (see notes 3 and 4);
respect others and give them space;
looking further ahead, don't forget to get your annual Flu jab when it next becomes available; that is usually sometime in September/October.

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) The Zoe Health Study people suggest that if you have symptoms of a common cold there is a chance you might have COVID.

4) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

5) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms).

Annex

Commentary

This week

Little new to report as this week the media has been mainly reporting on the resignation of the Prime Minister.

Zoe published a blog on Long COVID

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE and pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study update on 30th June 2022 presented by Tim Spector.

Tim's was back a week early with a special update on the recent skyrocketing COVID rates, many of these down to reinfections.

Click to watch Independent SAGE update on 1st July 2022

A discussion on vaccines, variants and immunity, hosted by Prof Sheena Cruickshank and Prof Danny Altmann, with guests Prof John P. Moore, Prof Maria Elena Bottazzi and Prof Rosemary Boyton, chaired by Prof Alice Roberts, and numbers presented by Dr Duncan Robertson.

There was no Independent SAGE update this week.

Click for Dr John Campbell's talk on 5th July 2022 about BA.5 possibly causing more severe disease and vaccine escape

Click for Dr John Campbell's talk on 6th July 2022 about deaths being 16% above the 5 year average and not because of COVID

More cancers, infant mortality, and liver disease perhaps linked to either the non availability of healthcare or delayed treatments during lockdown.

Possibly there has been an over-focus on COVID to the exclusion of other illnesses? Dr John Campbell suggests there should be a government inquiry into the causes of excess deaths.

List of vaccines

Moderna is developing a new version of its vaccine designed to protect from both Wuhan and Omicron strains.

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

COVID-19 vaccine	Doses ordered (million)	Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C	40+60+35	Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge	100	Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C	7+10	Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose	60+40 order cancelled	A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021. Approved by MHRA April 2022.
Janssen, single dose	20	Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Nuvaxovid	60	A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials. Approved by MHRA 3rd Feb 2022. JCVI to advise how vaccine will be used.
GSK Sanofi	60	Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expected approval and delivery of 7.5M doses in 2022.
Curevac	50 ?	Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine; disappointing trial results have resulted in the company working on a second generation vaccine. Future uncertain.