Blogs > Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern SeniorsClick to read our observations on politics and world events 21st August 2022 COVID-19 HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AND DEATHS FALLING No update next week PreambleFor more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found. During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data. Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and so we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages. The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:
Now the epidemic is largely over the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer. As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages. This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date. ContentsSummaryThere has been a steady downturn in COVID-19 infections as confirmed by a reduction in the number of patients admitted to hospital and a fall in COVID bed occupancy during the last four weeks. The COVID death rate peaked at the end of July 2022 and is now falling, but there is a little concern about excess deaths (above the five year average) possibly because patients could not see their doctor or treatment was delayed. Because the Wuhan vaccines rarely stop us catching the latest variants and prevalence is still moderately high, there is a chance some of us will catch COVID-19 in coming weeks despite being fully vaccinated. The lucky may either show few symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; but others could feel quite poorly and spend a few days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover. Many of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised take it easy until fully recovered. Very few of those infected with Omicron are admitted to hospital. Any precautions to take are now a personal decision; see our advice. To reduce the likelyhood of hospitalisation amongst the most vulnerable, a second COVID-19 booster jab has been available to Seniors aged 75+ years known as the Spring Booster. A further Autumn booster dose will now be offered to those aged 50+ starting in September. For those aged 50 to 74 this will be a second booster and for those aged 75+ it would be a third booster. Expect to receive a communication from the NHS. Some surgeries have been offering Boosters, but if not you can get your jab at the Three Counties Showground vaccination centre (use brown gate). Click for information about Walk-In Clinics Click for information about the Spring Booster Click for NHS notice about Autumn Boosters Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links Note: following Sajid Javid's resignation, Stephen Barclay is now Health Secretary. Monkeypox updateOutbreaks of Monkeypox have been detected in Europe and the UK. It's a serious and now a notifiable disease. Click below for European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control factsheet:- Factsheet for health professionals on Monkeypox AP News reports the WHO has declared this a global emergency. UN health agency chief declares monkeypox a global emergency Up to 15 August 2022 there were 3,081 confirmed and 114 highly probable monkeypox cases in the UK: 3,195 in total. Of these, 75 were in Scotland, 27 were in Northern Ireland, 43 were in Wales and 3,050 were in England. As of 8 August 2022 there were 2,914 confirmed and 103 highly probable monkeypox cases in the UK, so an increase of 40 cases a day, as has been the case for some weeks. Data is now being published once a week on Tuesdays. Click link: Monkeypox cases confirmed in England - latest UKHSA update The good news for Seniors is that vaccination for Smallpox, which we mostly had as children, should give protection from Monkeypox. How to get vaccinated for COVID-19COVID has mutated so the original Wuhan vaccines do not stop the disease being passed on to someone else. The purpose of vaccination is now to minimise severe illness which results in hospitalisation, and possibly death. Children aged 5 - 11 years can be offered the vaccine, though only 10% or so have had a first dose in England. Prof Kit Yates of Independent SAGE thinks vaccination of children is a good thing but we suspect many parents are unsure. Those aged 16+ years can book a booster 3 months after their second dose. Click NHS link - Who can currently get a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine For information about walk-in centres in Worcestershire go to the website: and click the Vaccine Rollout tab at the top of the page. Click for information about vaccination at the Three Counties Showground Otherwise either see the NHS website for walk-in opening times and vaccine availability: Or click this link for more information and to book a vaccination on-line: Book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk) Or talk to your GP. More about vaccinationsFor historic information about the vaccination programme select an archived report eg Go to vaccination section of 7th August blog Number of casesThere are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.
ONS infection surveyONS estimate that 1,432,900 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 6th August; a fall of 40% since the last survey 11 days before. Click for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 5th August 2022
Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS Zoe Health StudyThe ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.
Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study According to the more up-to-date Zoe figures prevalence in the UK has fallen by 22% in the last week and daily cases by 9%. Both the ONS and Zoe indicate the current wave of COVID is subsiding. Numbers testing COVID positive in Worcestershire (PHE)Note: this section has been deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK; figures can still be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard, but these greatly underestimate the true number of infections. The direction of travel in Malvern is down. Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard Number of deathsStatistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that in real time COVID weekly deaths have peaked and are now falling. PHE figuresThe Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 240 deaths per day about 10th April; and fell to a minimum of 40 about 10th June. Deaths then rose once again peaking at 183 per day about 18th July, then falling to 113 by 8th August. Note that some of the deaths reported by PHE will be people who die with COVID but not from it. Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard ONS figuresThe Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland. Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death. Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet) The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 5th August (week 31 of 2022) is shown below. Note: the numbers are from summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table, which gives the provisional total of deaths reported in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting over public holidays. Deaths by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 5th August 2022. There was 1 death in hospital in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in hospital in Redditch; 1 death in a care home in the city of Worcester; 1 death at home in Wychavon; and 1 death elsewhere in Wyre Forest. In England and Wales 721 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 5th August, 86 less than the week before and a fall of 11%. Of these 90 were in a care home, 63 at home, 26 in a hospice, 532 in hospital and 10 elsewhere. Of the 721 deaths, 682 were in England and 39 in Wales - so about in proportion to the population of 56M in England, and 3M in Wales. So far this year in England and Wales 23,886 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.
ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022 Note: the steps in the chart above in weeks 18 and 22 were probably due to delayed reporting over the Easter, Mayday and Jubilee holidays. The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths peaked at 160 deaths per day on 8th April, dipped to 25 about 10th June, then increasing peaking once again at 117 deaths per day on 18th June; since fallen slightly to 109 deaths per day on 22nd July. But what you have to remember is these figures relate to what was happening almost a month ago during which time the death rate will have fallen further. In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK. Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths NHS England figures for WorcestershireThe table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 18th August 2022.
Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices. About as expected; two more deaths than last week. Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust. Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday. Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this yearSince 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals. A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported. With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%. Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England. England peaked at about 800 (ONS) deaths per week at the end of July, so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of 8 deaths per week or 1 per day. To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age. For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health. Risk of COVID-19 death by age bandNHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022 The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19. The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems. Healthcare numbersThe UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.
Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 17th August 2022 Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital. The daily number of COVID patients admitted to hospital continues to fall steadily. See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard. It is rumoured about half are being treated for COVID, and the remainder for another condition with COVID. Bed numbers by region in EnglandTabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of direction of travel: Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.
Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by about 15% in England, London and the Midlands. For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table. The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy peaked in England about 18th July. Deaths can be expected to follow a similar shaped curve delayed by one week or so.
COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st April 2022 to 11th August Worcestershire hospital bedsBetween 8 August 2022 and 14 August 2022, 56 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows a decrease of 28% compared to the previous 7 days. There were 99 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 16 August 2022, a decrease of 3 on the week before; none on a ventilator. Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard This link also reports deaths. Deaths in Malvern HillsBetween 6 August 2022 and 12 August 2022, there was 1 death within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. Forecast for the week aheadWe expect the number of COVID related weekly deaths in England and Wales (as registered by ONS) to be somewhere between 600 and 650 in Week 32 ending 14th August, to be reported on 23rd August. In the county of Worcestershire, based on 56 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 5 COVID deaths per week in early September. It is expected NHS COVID bed occupancy will continue falling in England next week as the current wave of infection subsides. Longer term outlookTheoretically we were supposed to have entered the endemic stage of the disease with a high background level of infection, falling in the summer as more time is spent outdoors, and then rising in the winter, but that is not exactly what has happened. Emerging factors are new variants against which the vaccines offer increasingly less protection; vaccinations waning in effectiveness; booster shots; overseas travel during school holidays; and super-spreader events such as summer music festivals and sports events; so it has become almost impossible for computer models to predict what happens next. During the spring and early summer cases rose rather than falling because of the new BA.5 variant. Currently there are no signs of a new variant of concern so infections can be expected to fall during the remainder of August and September. Based on current rates of fall and Zoe's estimates of new infections per day, we hazard a guess, that barring new variants, new infections may fall to 60,000 per day by the end of August and halve again to 30,000 by the end of September, with the ONS COVID death rate falling proportionally towards 25 deaths per day in England. Cases could begin to rise again in October/November when more time is spent indoors with the windows shut, and children at school. However, to counter this, from September the NHS will be offering Autumn booster shots to those aged 50+ years to protect the most vulnerable from serious illness. UCL modelling is suggesting the COVID death rate may fall to a minimum of 35 deaths per day, that is 245 certified deaths per week by the end of September, which is quite credible; then possibly increasing to about 1,400 deaths per week during the winter months which would be concerning. What happens will greatly depend on the uptake and effectiveness of Autumn booster shots, and human behaviour, such as mask wearing. All unknowns, so at this stage all that can be said is that the COVID death rate will probably go up a bit in the winter. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic Providing the death rate remains below 700 deaths per week it is unlikely either the public or the government will be concerned. Advice for SeniorsThe risk of exposure to COVID-19 is MODERATE in the UK and many European countries and this situation could continue for some months. See our riskometer opposite. Those at highest risk are said to include:
Most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health. For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:
Notes: 1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel. 2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away. 3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive. 4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms). 5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries. AnnexCommentaryAs last week, not much to report. The prevalence of COVID-19 peaked about 4 weeks ago and is now steadily declining in all regions of the UK and all age groups. MHRA has approved the Moderna bivalent vaccine which protects against the original Wuhan strain and the Omicron BA.1 variant. The media speculates there will only be enough doses for half the Autumn booster shots, so likely the original Moderna and Pfizer vaccines will be used for the remainder. Autumn boosters for those aged 50+ will probably start to be trickled out in week commencing 5th September 2022. See NHS article: NHS to roll out variant busting booster jab from September ahead of winter Most of those aged 75+ have already had 4 doses so we are wondering what the benefit of a 5th dose would be? The new Moderna vaccine has only been tested on about 400 people, so we won't be the first in the queue! Without a strong advertising campaign the uptake could possibly be poor. COVID video updatesNote: there are no Zoe or Independent SAGE updates this week. Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE and pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:- Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 11th August 2022 presented by Tim Spector. Tim's latest video, recorded while on holiday in France, briefly explores the latest news and rates on monkeypox, as well as plummeting daily COVID cases, the most recently recorded COVID symptoms, and some data on hypertension. Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 12th August 2022 Special public question and answer session. Topics risks, vaccines, Long Covid, masks, mitigation and more. Dr Deenan Pillay chairs and Dr Duncan Robertson does numbers. In his blogs this week Dr John Campbell queries whether adequate safety testing has been done on the new Moderna vaccine, and raises concerns about possible side effects of vaccines in young people. For example view: List of vaccinesAn updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a 'bivalent' vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve. Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground. The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA. Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February. The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023. The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals. Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
Summary of LinksSome of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
SymptomsNote: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022 Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body
Reporting and how to obtain a testHow to get a test https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
GuidanceUK government Coronavirus guidance See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website
COVID Alert statesGuidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
TiersGuidance on tiers: what you need to know Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
StatisticsUK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview UK government Coronavirus Dashboard Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet) NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions NHS England vaccination statistics Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website. Click for chart showing % vaccinated
ModellingA forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ReportsCoronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources. MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed. COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19 NICE guidance on managing Long COVID
The bigger pictureWorldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases World Health Organisation info
Window on the USACentre for Disease Control (CDC) Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States. American Association of Retired People (AARP)
WorcestershireA local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard. Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages. Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down. Note 3: deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9. Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus. Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
MiscellaneousSpanish Flu Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health Follow Martin McKee on Twitter Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter
SAGE membership Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government: Link to Scottish Government website Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government: Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own |
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Last updated 21st August 2022 |