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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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18th September 2022

HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AND DEATHS DOWN A BIT

Those aged 65+ years can book Autumn booster vaccinations on-line

Preamble

For more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages.

The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

• The ONS infection survey

• Registered deaths (ONS, NHS)

• NHS hospital bed occupancy, and

• The Zoe Health Study

Now the epidemic seems largely over in the UK the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer.

As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages.

This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date.

Contents

Summary

What happens if you get sick

Booster shots

Vaccination Sites

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors

Annex/commentary

Summary of links

Menu of archived pages

Summary

For most people COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health in Worcestershire - at present relatively few people are being admitted to hospital and only a handful a week are dying in a population of approximately 600,000.

The COVID Omicron BA.5 death rate peaked at the end of July 2022 and has since been steadily falling; there is however a little concern about excess deaths (10% or so above the five year average) which needs to be explained; it may perhaps be because patients could not see their doctor or treatment was delayed during the pandemic.

While hospital admissions have continued to fall, the Zoe Health Study recently reports a slight upturn in new infections in those aged 0 - 17 years.

There may be a further rise after children go back to school and as winter sets in but the effects of that may not be felt for some weeks.

Autumn booster vaccinations are now on offer to those aged 65+ years.

See Booster shots section below.

What happens if you get sick

Because the Wuhan vaccines rarely stop people catching the Omicron variant and prevalence is still moderately high, do not be surprised if you catch COVID despite being fully vaccinated. Infection 12 months ago rarely stops people getting sick for a second time.

Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Many of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised take it easy until fully recovered.

Precautions

Any precautions to take are now a personal decision.

Click to view our advice

The bookmark below will take you  to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see.

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

Booster shots

Spring Boosters are no longer available; instead an Autumn booster jab is being offered to those aged 50+ starting with the most elderly.

For more information click this link:-

NHS invites more than four million people for Autumn booster as care homes set to get first jabs

From 12th September those aged 65+ years can book an Autumn Booster.

However you should not book if it is less than 3 months since your last vaccination or you have had COVID within the last 2 weeks.

Either the NHS or your GP Surgery (or both) should contact you when it is your turn to book - you should not need to contact them.

This week we received a TEXT MESSAGE from New Court Surgery to click an NHS link within 48 hours to book a GP appointment. We normally keep our phone switched off so only found out about this when a friend told us she had a TEXT message.

Our mobiles are not smart-phones so we typed the link into our computer browser; then found there were no appointments left - so we may phone our GP surgery to book our COVID and Flu jabs in due course

It looks as though GP Surgeries are using a new NHS computer automated on-line booking system to save receptionists' time on the phone.

The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed slightly with the rollout of Autumn boosters.

According to SW Healthcare, representing GP Surgeries, the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccinations will either be at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics, else roving 'Vaccine Vans' which are otherwise known as 'Jab-Vans'.

That is not the complete picture as some pharmacies will also be offering walk-in and timed appointments.

To book an Autumn Booster on-line:-

Click for NHS National Booking Service

Note: at present you may have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment.

Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time.

Don't forget to check the mobile phone you have registered with your GP surgery for text messages.

If you think you have been forgotten or don't have a mobile phone, phone your GP surgery to book an appointment.

The email invitation we had from the NHS included a link for finding walk-in centres:

Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

A few days ago this listed Claremont House Pharmacy in Barnards Green, but not today.

Currently Claremont House only offers a small number of timed appointments next Thursday afternoon.

Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1.

The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs in conjunction with NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

Hint: click Vaccine Rollout on the navigation bar at the top of the page and then Vaccine Van for pop-ups. There are no pop-ups in Malvern at the moment.

In summary, if you want to get your Autumn booster you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont Pharmacy, look for a pop-up, or perhaps easiest contact your GP Surgery and book your flu jab at the same time.

Vaccination Sites

The NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 14th September 2022 listing vaccination centres under the categories:

• Pharmacies

• GP led vaccination services

• Vaccination centres

• Hospital Hubs

Note: this does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans.

Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites

Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link, and Claremont House in Barnards Green.

Prospect View is the only GP Health centre listed in Malvern.

 Upton Surgery is used by some residents.

The Malvern Showground remains listed as a Vaccination Centre despite SW Healthcare saying it has closed.

No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire.

Note: for historical information about how to get vaccinated, which may be out of date, select an archived report eg

Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

Number of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

• The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.

• The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.

• PHE data gathered from PCR testing, mostly now in hospitals. Hospitals are stopping surveillance and will now only be testing patients showing symptoms. Will not now therefore report either COVID in the general population or asymptomatic cases in hospital.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimated that 705,800 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 5th September 2022; a fall of about 8.4% since the previous report.

Note: the methodology for ONS testing has changed and it is rumoured the sample size has been reduced.

Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

Prevalence is higher in Scotland (1:45) and lower in Wales (1:110).

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study

According to the latest Zoe figures estimated prevalence rose by 6.7% in the UK last week suggesting about 1:42 people test positive for COVID, while daily cases have risen by 6.3%.

Broadly the Zoe figures haven't changed much, while the ONS figures are showing a slow decline.

Hospital bed occupancy is now becoming a better measure of the epidemic.

Numbers testing COVID positive in Worcestershire (PHE)

Note: this section has been deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK; figures can still be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard, but these greatly underestimate the true number of infections. The direction of travel in Malvern is down.

Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as  they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that COVID weekly deaths have been steadily falling.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 183 per day about 18th July, then steadily falling to 55 per day by 5th September.

Given that testing has been greatly reduced this can no longer be considered a reliable indicator.

Note that some of the deaths reported by PHE will be people who die with COVID but not from it.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 2nd September (week 35 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table, which gives the provisional total of deaths reported in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting over public holidays.

Deaths by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 2nd September 2022.

There were 2 deaths in care homes in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in hospital in Redditch; and 1 death in a care home in Wyre Forest.

In England and Wales 314 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 2nd September, 137 less than the week before and a fall of 30%. Of these 46 were in care homes, 29 at home, 6 in a hospice, 232 in hospital and 31 elsewhere.

The fall in deaths was greater than expected; delayed reporting over the Autumn Bank Holiday might have been a small factor.

So far this year in England and Wales 25,791 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

Note: the steps in the chart above in weeks 18 and 22 were probably due to delayed reporting over the Easter, Mayday and Jubilee holidays.

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths peaked at 120 deaths per day on 18th July; since gradually falling to 50 deaths per day by 19th August. This is the most reliable measure of deaths.

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 15th September 2022.

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

The same as last week.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year

Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals.

A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported.

With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%.

Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England.

England peaked at about 800 (ONS) deaths per week at the end of July (now about 350), so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of no more than 8 deaths per week or 1 per day.

To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age.

For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 15th September 2022

Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.

The daily number of COVID patients admitted to hospital is falling more slowly now. To some extent that might be expected if admissions roughly follow an exponential decay curve, but there are signs hospital admissions are approaching a plateau and could rise slightly in coming weeks.

See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.

COVID daily NHS hospital admissions in England

The next chart shows how COVID daily hospital admissions have varied since 1st April 2022.

Note: shows the number of patients admitted in previous 24 hours where patient known to have COVID-19 plus patients diagnosed in hospital with COVID-19 in previous 24 hours.

NHS England - COVID daily admissions to 29th August

In the last fortnight hospital admissions continued downwards.

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by only 6.7% in England, 2.4% in London and 2.5% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy peaked in England about 18th July. The peak in beds is about one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions.

COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st April to 14th September 2022

It's possible hospital bed occupancy is approaching a plateau.

Deaths can be expected to follow a similar shaped curve delayed by one week or so.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Between 6 September 2022 and 12 September 2022, 29 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows a decrease of 10% compared to the previous 7 days.

There were 40 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 14 September 2022, one less than last week, but two are now on a ventilator.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 4 September 2022 and 10 September 2022, there was 1 death within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

Forecast for the week ahead

We expect roughly 300 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales (as registered by the ONS) in week 36 ending 9th September, to be reported on 20th September.

The figure could be slightly inflated by delayed reporting of deaths over the Autumn Bank Holiday.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 29 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 3 COVID deaths per week in the second half of September.

NHS COVID bed occupancy in England is likely to remain close to the present level.

Longer term outlook

Currently there are no signs of a new variant of concern so infections ought to fall during September - except for the fact:

• vaccines are waning in effectiveness;

• mixing of children going back to school and students to university;

• transmission from children to teachers and parents;

• the general population spending more time indoors with the windows shut.

The Zoe Health Study people think COVID infections are just beginning to rise, while hospital bed occupancy seems to be reaching a plateau with prospects of rising further during the winter.

Based on the recent fall in COVID bed occupancy we hazard a guess the ONS death rate will bottom out at about 300 deaths per week or about 43 deaths per day in England and Wales in the second half of September before probably trending upwards in October/November

To counter this the NHS is offering Autumn booster shots to those aged 50+ years to protect the most vulnerable from serious illness, starting with the oldest.

According to Independent SAGE take up by the elderly is said to be good.

UCL modelling charts suggest the COVID death rate may fall to a minimum of 35 deaths per day, that is 245 certified deaths per week by the end of September, which is credible; but concerningly the charts hint at a possible rise towards 1,400 deaths per week during the winter months.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

What happens will depend on the uptake and effectiveness of the Autumn booster shots, human behaviour such as mask wearing, and the effect of inflation and energy pricing on the public's health.

We can be fairly sure that the COVID death rate will rise slightly in the winter; but we'll have to wait and see by how much.

In our opinion, providing the death rate remains below 700 deaths per week it is unlikely either the public or the government will be concerned.

Advice for Seniors

We currently judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 as MODERATE in the UK.

See our riskometer opposite.

Many people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:

• make sure your COVID and FLU vaccinations are fully up to date

• wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

• if infection rates become high, ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering,  or better an FFP2 face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

• SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

• preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;

• avoid crowded indoor settings;

• avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;

• ideally self-isolate for 5 to 10 days to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are sore throat, headache, blocked nose, cough, and runny nose, which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold; other symptoms may include sneezing, tiredness and muscle aches and pains.

• respect others and give them space;

• looking further ahead, don't forget to get your annual Flu jab when it next becomes available; that is usually sometime in September/October.

 Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms).

5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries.

Annex

Commentary

This week

GPs have begun to book Autumn Booster appointments for the elderly and vaccinations will begin to ramp up next week.

The take up of vaccine by those aged 5 - 11 years is poor and it appears both parents and the government are no longer concerned about vaccinating this age group as they can be expected to develop natural immunity.

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE  and pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 8th September 2022 presented by Tim Spector.

Cases are rising slightly in the 0 - 17 years age group.

Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 16th September 2022

The latest Covid numbers from Dr Kit Yates followed Public Q and A covering boosters, immunity, mitigation and more.

List of vaccines

Autumn bivalent boosters

A second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above.

An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.

Click for government press release - First bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine approved by UK medicines regulator

The earlier vaccine story

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

 Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

 The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Summary of Links

Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website

COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021

Tiers

Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas

Statistics

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Modelling

A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths

Reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS

A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/

MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.

COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19

NICE guidance on managing Long COVID

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.

Note 3:  deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.

Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE

Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland

Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own