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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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16th October 2022

COVID BED OCCUPANCY LEVELLING OFF - BUT CASES UP IN THE MALVERN HILLS

Those aged 50+ years can book Autumn booster vaccinations

GRAB A JAB - COVID BOOSTER CLINICS: Monday 17th and 24th October Malvern Football Club, Langland Avenue,WR14 2BQ 10 am to 4 pm. No appointment necessary.

Preamble

For more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages.

The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

• The ONS infection survey

• Registered deaths (ONS, NHS)

• NHS hospital bed occupancy, and

• The Zoe Health Study

Now the epidemic seems largely over in the UK the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer.

As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages.

This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date.

Contents

Summary

What happens if you get sick

Booster shots

Vaccination Sites

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors

Annex/commentary

Summary of links

Bibliography

Menu of archived pages

Summary

There have been many cases of COVID-19 breaking out amongst the congregations of some churches in the last week.  Please take care, test if you still have Lateral Flow Tests, and take any necessary precautions to limit the spread; for example do not attend U3A meetings in person if you are feeling poorly.

For most people COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health in Worcestershire - at present relatively few people are being admitted to hospital with severe illness and less than a handful a week are dying in a population of approximately 600,000.

The COVID death rate in England and Wales seems to have levelled off at somewhere between 230 and 300 deaths per week but could yet ramp up towards 1,000 deaths per week during the winter. That's a lot but nothing for most people to be overly concerned about.

Winter wave of COVID-19

The UK is on the upside of the forecast Winter Wave of COVID-19 which started early following children's return to school.

Both ONS and the Zoe Health Study indicate the prevalence of COVID-19 is rising and this is mirrored by increasing NHS hospital bed occupancy.

Infections could rise further during October and November.

Autumn booster jabs

Autumn booster vaccinations are now on offer to those aged 50+ years. Seniors are advised to get both the COVID booster and flu jabs to reduce the likelyhood of severe illness and hospitalisation.

Independent SAGE say 61% of those aged over 75 years have had their Autumn booster, and 47% of those aged 65 to 74 years.

See Booster shots section below.

What happens if you get sick

Because the vaccines rarely stop people catching COVID and prevalence is rising do not be surprised if you catch COVID despite being fully vaccinated. Infection 12 months ago rarely stops people getting sick for a second time.

Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Many of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered.

Precautions

Any precautions to take are now a personal decision.

Click to view our advice

The bookmark below will take you  to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see.

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

Booster shots

Spring Boosters are no longer available; instead an Autumn booster jab is being offered to those aged 50+ years.

For more information click this link:-

NHS invites more than four million people for Autumn booster as care homes set to get first jabs

From 14th October all those aged 50+ years can book an Autumn Booster.

However you should not book if it is less than 3 months since your last vaccination or you have had COVID within the last 2 weeks.

Either the NHS or your GP Surgery (or both) should contact you when it is your turn to book; either by email, text message or letter. You should not need to contact them.

The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed slightly with the rollout of Autumn boosters.

According to SW Healthcare, representing GP Surgeries, the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccinations will either be at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics, else roving 'Vaccine Vans' which are otherwise known as 'Jab-Vans'.

That is not the complete picture as some pharmacies such as Claremont House in Barnards Green and Evans in Malvern Link will also be offering walk-in and timed appointments.

To book an Autumn Booster on-line:-

Click for NHS National Booking Service

Note: you may sometimes have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment, depending on vaccine availability.

Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time.

Don't forget to check the mobile phone you have registered with your GP surgery for text messages.

If you think you have been forgotten or don't have a mobile phone, phone your GP surgery to book an appointment.

Our email from the NHS included a link for finding walk-in centres:

Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1.

The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs in conjunction with NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

Hint: click Vaccine Rollout on the navigation bar at the top of the page and then Vaccine Van for pop-ups.

When we last looked the following pop up venues were listed for Malvern:-

In summary, if you want to get your Autumn booster you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont House and Evans Pharmacies, look for a pop-up, or perhaps easiest contact your GP Surgery and book your flu jab at the same time.

Vaccination Sites

The NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 5th October 2022 listing vaccination centres under the categories:

• Pharmacies

• GP led vaccination services

• Vaccination centres

• Hospital Hubs

Note: this does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans.

Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites

Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link, and Claremont House in Barnards Green.

Prospect View is the only GP Health centre listed in Malvern.

(No information listed for Whiteacres Medical Centre, Malvern Link; do tell us if you know)

 Upton Surgery is used by some residents.

The Malvern Showground remains listed as a Vaccination Centre despite SW Healthcare saying it has closed. If you know the situation there do please let us know.

No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire.

Note: for historical information about how to get vaccinated, which may be out of date, select an archived report eg

Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

Number of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

• The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.

• The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.

• PHE data gathered from PCR testing, mostly now in hospitals. Hospitals are stopping surveillance and will now only be testing patients showing symptoms; so PHE no longer reports either COVID in the general population or asymptomatic cases in hospital.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimates that 1,513,700   people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 3rd October 2022; an increase of almost 37% since the previous report.

Note that this information is almost two weeks out of date.

Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

Compare with estimated prevalence in Scotland (1:50), Wales (1:40), and Northern Ireland (1:40).

The ONS charts show infections rising in all regions of England especially West Midlands. Cases are particularly rising in Seniors aged 70+ years, so two good reasons to get your Autumn Booster if you have not already had it.

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study

Even after accounting for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, prevalence estimated by the Zoe Health Study is almost double that estimated by the ONS. However both show the incidence of COVID is continuing to increase.

According to the later Zoe figures estimated prevalence rose by 17% in the UK last week suggesting about 1:25 people would test positive for COVID, while daily cases have risen by just 5%.

The rise is a little less than last week and could indicate daily cases approaching a plateau.

Hospital bed occupancy has been rising, mirroring the increase in cases.

Numbers testing COVID positive in Worcestershire (PHE)

Note: this section has been deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK; figures can still be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard, but these greatly underestimate the true number of infections. The direction of travel in Malvern is down.

Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as  they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that COVID weekly deaths have levelled off and are just beginning to rise. The death rate is expected to rise slowly between now and Christmas, but not to a level to be overly concerned about.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 183 per day about 18th July, then steadily falling to 43 per day by 13th September before rising to 92 deaths per day on 3rd October.

Note: more than half the deaths reported by PHE may be people who die with COVID but not from it.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 30th September (week 39 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are now derived from  Table 1 of the ONS Death Registrations spreadsheet using the in-built filters. This gives the provisional total of deaths reported in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting over public holidays.

Deaths by Welsh Health Boards are excluded to avoid duplication as these are totals of Local authorities.

Deaths by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 30th September 2022.

There was 1 COVID death in hospital in the city of Worcester; and 2 deaths in hospital in Wychavon.

In England and Wales 287 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 30th September, 53 more than last week. Of these 40 were in care homes, 25 at home, 6 in a hospice, 213 in hospital and 3 elsewhere.

Note: the number of deaths registered this week may include some reports delayed by the Public Holiday for HM Queen's funeral.

So far this year in England and Wales 26,975 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

Note: the steps in the chart above in weeks 18, 22, and 36 were likely caused by delayed reporting over Public Holidays

Following the upturn in hospital admissions it's likely the death rate will rise a little in the next week or two.

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths peaked at 120 deaths per day on 18th July; gradually falling to  a 7 day average of 30 deaths per day by 9th September, since risen slightly to 33 on 16th September. This is the most reliable measure of deaths.

(For the UK picture add approximately 3 for Wales, 6 for Scotland and 1 for NI making 40 deaths per day).

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 13th October 2022.

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

Six more than last week, suggesting a slight uptick.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year (overview)

Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals.

A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported.

With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%.

Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England.

England peaked at about 800 (ONS) deaths per week at the end of July but now no more than 300, so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of fewer than 3 deaths per week.

To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 40 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age.

For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

COVID bed occupancy has continued drifting up.

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on `13th October 2022

Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.

See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.

The number of COVID patients admitted daily is roughly the same as last week; so could this be the top of the winter wave, or will there be steeper slopes to climb?

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds rose by just 10% in England, 15% in London and 12% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy peaked in England about 18th July and until last week was rising at a linear rate of about 2,000 beds per week.

The peak in beds was about one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions and deaths lag beds by a further week.

COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st July to 5th October 2022

In the last week (not shown in the chart above) hospital bed occupancy appears to be levelling off.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Between 4 October 2022 and 10 October 2022, 79 patients went into hospital with coronavirus; two more than last week.

There were 98 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 12 October 2022, ten more than the week before; 3 are on a ventilator

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 2 October 2022 and 8 October 2022, there were no deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

Forecast for the week ahead

We expect roughly 300 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales (as registered by the ONS) in week 40 ending 7th October, to be reported on 18th October.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 79 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 7 COVID deaths per week at the end of October.

NHS COVID bed occupancy in England is expected to rise by between zero and 10% next week.

Longer term outlook

Currently, though there are many Omicron variants, there are few signs of a new variant of concern so infections ought to fall during September - except for the fact:

• few precautions are now being taken;

• vaccines are waning in effectiveness;

• mixing of children going back to school and students to university;

• transmission from children to teachers and parents;

• the general population beginning to spend more time huddled indoors with the windows shut.

Given that COVID hospital bed occupancy fell to 4,000 beds in England, and has already risen to 10,608 it's possible the death rate will rise from say 230 deaths per week towards 610 in England and Wales during the next fortnight or so.

This week there are signs that the rise in COVID bed occupancy is slowing down and with half term approaching there could even be a slight dip, before  bed occupancy possibly rises a little higher in November.

To counter this demand for NHS beds, Autumn booster shots are being offered to those aged 50+ years to protect the most vulnerable from severe illness and hospitalisation. Depending on take up, this could dampen the peak of the winter wave, but it's difficult to predict by how much.

UCL modelling charts 'hint' the COVID Winter Wave could head towards 170 deaths per day or 1,190 deaths per week in the UK during November 2022.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

There is no certainty the death rate will rise this high. Exactly what happens will depend on the uptake and effectiveness of the Autumn Booster shots, human behaviour such as mask wearing, improvements to ventilation, winter temperatures and the effect of inflation and energy pricing on the public's health.

Additional deaths due to the Winter Wave

The UK COVID-19 death rate will certainly rise a little this winter, but by how much is unclear.

However we are fairly sure the rise should be nothing for most Seniors to worry about.

It has been our opinion that while the death rate remained below 700 deaths per week neither the public nor the government would be concerned. This threshold may be reached towards the end of October. However, we doubt many will be concerned by a 'blip'  - possibly of the order of 10,000 additional UK COVID deaths amongst OAPs this winter.

To put things in perspective, Worcestershire's share of this might only be of the order of 100 COVID related deaths.

In a population of 600,000 few are likely to be concerned about that as, barring new variants, the vast majority (we estimate 99.98%) can be expected to survive any winter bout of COVID-19.

This 'projection' assumes people can afford to eat and heat their homes and by implication a relatively mild winter, and that is by no means certain.

Advice for Seniors

We judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 has returned to very HIGH in England.

See our riskometer opposite.

Despite this many, perhaps most, people will still be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:

• make sure your COVID and FLU vaccinations are fully up to date

• wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

• ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering,  or better an FFP2 face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

• SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

• preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;

• avoid crowded indoor settings;

• avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;

• ideally self-isolate to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are sore throat, headache, blocked nose, cough, and runny nose, which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold; other symptoms may include sneezing, tiredness and muscle aches and pains.

• respect others and give them space;

 Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms). No information yet on the efficacy of the new bivalent vaccines.

5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries.

Annex

Commentary

This week

After a dip there are once again people catching COVID-19 in the Malvern Hills area, so it makes sense to take a little more care.

Seasonal colds are also circulating.

Those aged 50+ years can now book an Autumn Booster.

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE  and sometimes pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 6th October 2022 presented by Tim Spector.

Tim Spector says Colds are three times more likely than COVID. Incidence of Colds highest in children aged 0 - 17 years who bring the Cold back from school and then give it to their parents and grandparents.

Note: since he said this the incidence of COVID has gone up.

Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 14th October 2022

Join Independent SAGE for a Public Q and A session, chaired by Prof Anthony Costello, along with a presentation of the latest Covid trends by Dr Duncan Robertson .

List of vaccines

Autumn bivalent boosters

A second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above.

An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.

Click for government press release - First bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine approved by UK medicines regulator

The earlier vaccine story

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

 Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

 The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Summary of Links

Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website

COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021

Tiers

Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas

Statistics

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Modelling

A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths

Reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS

A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/

MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.

COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19

NICE guidance on managing Long COVID

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.

Note 3:  deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.

Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE

Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland

Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales

Bibliography

Woolhouse, Professor Mark, The Year the World went Mad, published 2022 by Sandstone Press Ltd, ISBN: 978-1-913207-94-3

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own