Blogs > Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern SeniorsClick to read our observations on politics and world events 13th November 2022 PREVALENCE AND COVID BED OCCUPANCY CONTINUING TO FALL Those aged 50+ years can book Autumn booster vaccinations PreambleFor more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found. During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data. Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages. The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:
Now the epidemic seems largely over in the UK the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer. As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages. This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date. ContentsSummaryThe current Autumn Wave of COVID-19 peaked about three weeks ago and NHS COVID bed occupancy in England is falling. For most, COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health. In Worcestershire relatively few people are being admitted to hospital with severe illness and no more than a dozen patients a week, and typically half that, are dying in a population of approximately 600,000. However a nasty respiratory infection has reminded us that COVID-19 is not the only bug doing the rounds this winter that can leave us feeling very poorly. Death rateNow the Autumn Wave has peaked and hospital admissions are falling, the weekly ONS death rate in England and Wales fell from 687 last week to 649 and will drop further. University College London modelling suggests the Autumn Wave could be followed by a Winter Wave ramping up in late November and peaking in January 2023. If that comes about, weekly deaths might fall no further than 350 before possibly rising towards 1,000 in January. That's a lot, but nothing for most people in good health to be concerned about. Any Winter Wave is most unlikely to restrict celebrations this Christmas, but could push daily deaths up a bit in the New Year What happens if you get sickIf you are feeling poorly there is now a fair chance it won't be COVID but some other winter respiratory virus. If you have a stash of Lateral Flow Tests, you can test yourself. However be aware some people say the test does not show positive until later in the illness and in any event what's the benefit - whatever the cause, patients will wrap up and keep warm until the illness is past. Because the vaccines rarely stop people catching COVID and prevalence is still quite high do not be surprised if you catch it. Infection 12 months ago rarely stops people getting sick for a second time. Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover. Note that these symptoms may be caused by other cold and flu like illnesses. Many of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered. Some patients report debilitating symptoms for months after so-called recovery. For example see Danny Altmann's book The Long COVID Handbook in bibliography. PrecautionsAny precautions to take are now a personal decision. The bookmark below will take you to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see. Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links Booster shotsAn Autumn booster jab is being offered to all those aged 50+ years and patients designated Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, such as with a severely weakened immune system. Note: you should not book if it is less than 3 months since your last vaccination or you have had COVID within the last 2 weeks. Seniors are advised to get both the COVID booster and flu jabs in order to reduce the likelyhood of severe illness and hospitalisation. The NHS advises it is safe to have both jabs at the same time, but to minimise side effects you might want to consider having them a week apart. Take up is good. Independent SAGE say 74% of those aged 65+ years in England have already had their COVID Autumn Booster. Either the NHS or your GP Surgery (or both) should contact you when it is your turn to book; either by email, text message or letter. You should not need to contact them. The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed slightly with the rollout of Autumn boosters. According to SW Healthcare, representing GP Surgeries, the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccinations will either be at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics, else roving 'Vaccine Vans' which are otherwise known as 'Jab-Vans'. That is not the complete picture as some pharmacies such as Claremont House in Barnards Green and Evans in Malvern Link will also be offering walk-in and timed appointments. To book an Autumn Booster on-line:- Click for NHS National Booking Service Note: you may sometimes have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment, depending on vaccine availability. Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time. Don't forget to check the mobile phone you have registered with your GP surgery for text messages. If you think you have been forgotten or don't have a mobile phone, phone your GP surgery to book an appointment. Our email from the NHS included a link for finding walk-in centres: Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1. The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs in conjunction with NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire. Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire Hint: click Vaccine Rollout on the navigation bar at the top of the page and then Vaccine Van for pop-ups. When we last looked pop-up venues for Malvern had been deleted from the calendar. The nearest is St Peter's Baptist church near Tesco on the outskirts of Worcester. In summary, if you want to get your Autumn booster you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont House and Evans Pharmacies, look for a pop-up, or perhaps easiest contact your GP Surgery and book your flu jab at the same time. Vaccination SitesThe NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 5th October 2022 listing vaccination centres under the categories:
Note: this does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans. Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link, and Claremont House in Barnards Green. Prospect View is the only GP Health centre listed in Malvern. (No information listed for Whiteacres Medical Centre, Malvern Link; do tell us if you know) Upton Surgery is used by some residents of Malvern and surrounds. The Malvern Showground remains listed as a Vaccination Centre despite SW Healthcare saying it has closed. If you know the situation there do please let us know. No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire. Note: for historical information about how to get vaccinated, which may be out of date, select an archived report eg Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog Number of casesThere are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.
ONS infection surveyONS estimates that 1,323,200 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 1st November 2022; a fall of 17% on last week. Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK
Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS Compare with similar prevalence in Scotland (1:50), Wales (1:40), and Northern Ireland (1:45). Zoe Health StudyThe ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.
Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study According to the later Zoe figures estimated prevalence and daily cases fell by about 10% in the UK last week. The trend is confirmed by falling hospital admissions and Hospital bed occupancy. Number of deathsStatistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that COVID weekly deaths have begun to fall from the recent peak. PHE figuresThe Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at about 148 on 19th October, then gradually falling to 108 by 31st October. Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard ONS figuresThe Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland. Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death. Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet) The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 28th October (week 43 of 2022) is shown below. Note: the numbers are now derived from Table 1 of the ONS Death Registrations spreadsheet using the in-built filters. This gives the provisional total of deaths registered in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting, for example, due to public holidays. Deaths by Welsh Health Boards are excluded to avoid duplication as these are totals of Local authorities. Death occurrences by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 28th October 2022. There was 1 death in a care home in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in a care home in Wychavon; and 1 death in hospital in Wyre Forest. In England and Wales 649 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 28th October, 38 less than the week before and a fall of 5%. Of these 93 were in care homes, 47 at home, 21 in a hospice, 487 in hospital and 1 elsewhere. So far this year in England and Wales 29,274 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.
ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022 Note: steps in the chart above are caused by delayed reporting over public holidays. The chart suggests the weekly death rate due to the Autumn Wave of COVID-19 has peaked. Looking forward, the death rate can be expected to dip for at least a couple of weeks while hospital admissions subside. The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths peaked at 120 deaths per day on 18th July; gradually falling to a 7 day average of 30 deaths per day by 9th September, since risen to 95 on 14th October. In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK. Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths NHS England figures for WorcestershireThe table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 10th November 2022.
Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices. About the expected level for recent weeks. Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust. Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday. Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year (overview)Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals. A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported. With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%. Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England. COVID deaths in England are now no more than 700 per week, so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of fewer than 7 deaths per week. To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age. For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health. Risk of COVID-19 death by age bandNHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022 The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19. The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems. According to the Coronavirus Dashboard sex is an additional risk factor - males are roughly 50% more likely to die than women. Healthcare numbersThe UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.
Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 10th November 2022 Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital. See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below. Bed numbers by region in EnglandTabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of the prevalence of COVID. Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.
Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by 22% in England, 20% in London and 25% in the Midlands. For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table. The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy due to the Autumn Wave peaked in England about 20th October 2022 and is now falling. The peak in beds is usually one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions, and deaths lag beds by a further week.
COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st July to 2nd November 2022 Worcestershire hospital bedsBetween 1 November 2022 and 7 November 2022, 21 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows a decrease of 54% compared to the previous 7 days. There were 52 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 9 November 2022; 31 less than the week before; 2 on a ventilator. Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard This link also reports deaths. Deaths in Malvern HillsBetween 30 October 2022 and 5 November 2022, there were 2 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. Forecast for the week aheadAs a consequence of the Autumn Wave we expect no more than 550 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales (as registered by the ONS) in week 44 ending 4th November, to be reported on 15th November. In the county of Worcestershire, based on 21 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 2 COVID deaths per week in the second half of November. NHS COVID bed occupancy in England could fall by a further 20% next week. Longer term outlook (up to Christmas)According to Independent SAGE there are many new Omicron variants circulating but so far none are seen as a variant of concern which might cause a further wave of COVID. Factors favouring a possible increase in infections are:
These factors are being strongly countered by the Autumn Booster programme, and natural immunity following recent infection. Hospital admissions, COVID bed occupancy and the Zoe Health Study all indicate the present Autumn Wave is over the worst, but there is no way of knowing how future cases will evolve during the remainder of the winter. We speculate cases could fall for the next 2 to 3 weeks and later rise due to friends and families mingling in December and the New Year. The remaining profile of daily cases could turn out somewhat like the northern ridge of the Malvern Hills with cases rising again in the New Year.
The northern ridge of the Malvern Hills Given that COVID hospital bed occupancy peaked at 10,608 beds in England, and has already fallen to 5,647 it's likely the ONS death rate will fall from 649 in week 43 to about 375 deaths per week in England and Wales during the next fortnight or so. The latest UCL modelling suggests that the death rate may fall to a minimum of 350 deaths per week in November. Cases could then begin to rise in late November, peaking in the second half of January, with associated deaths briefly rising towards about 1,000 possibly as high as 1,500 deaths per week. We are now referring to this projection as the Winter Wave. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic Additional deaths due to the Winter WaveThings don't look too bad. Prior to Christmas the UK COVID-19 death rate looks set to remain below 700 deaths per week. It has been our opinion that as long as the COVID death rate remained below that number neither the public nor the government would be concerned. This threshold now looks unlikely to be exceeded during the remainder of 2022, but could be topped in January and February 2023. We doubt many will be concerned by a 'blip' - possibly of the order of 10,000 additional UK COVID deaths amongst OAPs this winter. Flu and Excess Deaths (above the normal average) could yet turn out a much greater threat. To put things in perspective, Worcestershire's share might only be of the order of 100 COVID related deaths. In a population of 600,000 few will be concerned about that as, barring new variants of concern, the vast majority (we estimate 99.98%) can be expected to survive any winter bout of COVID-19. Advice for SeniorsWe judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 remains quite HIGH in England, but remember there are other respiratory viruses circulating that could make you feel just as sick. See our riskometer opposite. Many, perhaps most, healthy people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health. For the more cautious and the clinically vulnerable the simple safeguards to avoid all respiratory infections are to:
Notes: 1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel. 2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away. 3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive. 4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms). No information yet on the efficacy of the new bivalent vaccines. 5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries. AnnexCommentaryThis weekFor nearly two weeks one of us has been suffering from a nasty respiratory infection showing many of the symptoms of COVID, but testing negative; others are suffering too. COVID has moved to the bottom of the news agenda, but no doubt the COVID Inquiry will stimulate debate about what could have been done better and perhaps more will emerge about medical treatment of Long COVID. In one of his videos, Dr John Campbell mentioned that on 24th October MPs debated the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. Perhaps we will hear more about the compulsory vaccination of care workers, side effects etc in due course. Click for Hansard report Covid-19 Vaccines: Safety Figures confirm the Autumn Wave of COVID peaked in the middle of October and hospital admissions are falling. It's difficult to imagine a further wave of COVID given so many have been infected but UCL think a Winter Wave could start building up towards the end of November peaking in January. We'll have to wait and see whether or not that happens COVID video updatesLinks to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE and sometimes pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:- Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 3rd November 2022 presented by Dr Sarah Berry Zoe's Chief Scientist Dr Sarah Berry steps in for Tim while he takes a well-deserved break after publishing his latest book Food for Life. She talks about the latest updates from the Intermittent Fasting Study, including who's getting involved and some interesting data on snacking. She also briefly brings you Cold and COVID updates and information on why the fall in cases seems to be slowing down. Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 11th November 2022 Public Q and A, with Dr Duncan Robertson on numbers and Prof Anthony Costello as chair. Dr Duncan Robertson highlighted the critical state of the NHS and Ambulance Service. List of vaccinesAutumn bivalent boostersA second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above. An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The earlier vaccine storyHere is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve. Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground. The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA. Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February. The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023. The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals. Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
Summary of LinksSome of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
SymptomsNote: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022 Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body
Reporting and how to obtain a testHow to get a test https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
GuidanceUK government Coronavirus guidance See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website
COVID Alert statesGuidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
TiersGuidance on tiers: what you need to know Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
StatisticsUK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview UK government Coronavirus Dashboard Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet) NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions NHS England vaccination statistics Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website. Click for chart showing % vaccinated
ModellingA forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website. Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ReportsCoronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources. MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed. COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19 NICE guidance on managing Long COVID
The bigger pictureWorldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases World Health Organisation info
Window on the USACentre for Disease Control (CDC) Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States. American Association of Retired People (AARP)
WorcestershireA local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard. Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages. Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down. Note 3: deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9. Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus. Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
MiscellaneousSpanish Flu Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health Follow Martin McKee on Twitter Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter
SAGE membership Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government: Link to Scottish Government website Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government: Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
BibliographyWoolhouse, Professor Mark, The Year the World went Mad, published 2022 by Sandstone Press Ltd, ISBN: 978-1-913207-94-3 Medinger Dez, Altmann Danny, The Long Covid Handbook, Penguin Books, 2022. Kindle version available.
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own |
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Last updated 13th November 2022 |